MicroAce - New Releases

[katoftw]

Cost of license may have made the Gumdam version cost prohibitive?

 

Or since their factory is going bananas trying to get a massive backlog released, maybe fancy painted trains are on the backburner for a while?

[cteno4]

Licensing is tricky, never know what odd thing ends up hanging a deal. I use to have to deal with it quite a bunch of rights and licensing in my work and what seemed like a simple path would all of a sudden turn very to the odd, expensive, and/or outright impossible! Larger corporations do this as much as family controlled items, but the corps are usually utterly mysterious in why they will or won't easily deal!

 

Jeff

[Mudkip Orange]

Whatever. I preordered. I mean, I'm not even the hugest fan of this train, but everyone else is and Nankai is within the scope of Mudkip Dentetsu...

[ToniBabelony]

Next to the cool and awesome Rapit, two versions of the Keisei 3300 types... WHY!? They weren't that popular anywa, plus they can still be found everywhere. Next to that, a release in THE SAME LIVERY! ！Σ(×_×; )! (oh look, they just have different bogies. Yaaay...)

 

Why no 3200 in some weird test livery (they did the light blue test livery) or just a plain Fire Orange livery again. No extra investment in tooling, just different numbering and maybe in paint... Maybe a little bit more investment in tooling and add a pantograph to a front car and maybe alter the front to have the headlights placed over the windscreens and they can make almost ALL the old 3000~3300 types. EVER.

 

Sometimes I have the feeling MA is destroying itself from the inside out.

Edited January 24, 2015 by Toni Babelony

[katoftw]

I'm not defending MA when I type this...  But I'm guessing they don't want extra tooling.  They are 12 months behind schedule and already lost many customers along the way as Tomix started releasing alot of MA only products in the past year.  I'm guessing they are attempting to do a few interesting models, but also some simple/easy models to keep their release flowing slowly to retain customers.

 

You are right though, there releases are a little bit "Yawn" recently.

[Densha]

I really wonder what the future of this backlog will be though... while they are slowly releasing stuff again at the moment, the relative backlog is still getting bigger and bigger so it seems. They can't keep it up like this forever.

[cteno4]

I wonder what the difference in taste for various train models is for this forum community in general (being predominately not Japanese and/or living there) than the standard mainstream Japanese model railroader community in Japan. Perhaps Dave or Nariichi or one of the members in Japan might have some observations. These differences would probably effect what micro ace (and others) are doing. Micro ace, like green max, has always been the niche player and looks like the niche is changing some.

 

Cheers

 

Jeff

[katoftw]

I think it you ain't into JR East commuters and Shinkansens, then you probably fit into a niche market category.  Majority of Japan population live with 300km of Tokyo, so most would be buying trains that they know.  Places like Hokkaido and Kyushu, although well know by some, don't factor big in the model market.

 

I hazard a guess that JRE models account for 60-70% of models sold.  When you see a promo poster outside of Japan for a Shinkansen, outsiders with no train knowledge must think trains don't run outside  of Osaka, Tokyo and Amori.

 

Which is why MA appeals to me.  They do alot of Kyushu stuff that the 2 big names wont touch.  Although recently Tomix did delve into Kyushu Kihas.

 

Could just start a thread asking member to list their main area of interest.  You'd soon see a trend or get an idea of what most would and wouldn't be into.

Edited January 25, 2015 by katoftw

[disturbman]

Answers can be given here. ^^

[Ochanomizu]

Hello Mr Jeff,

 

I think the answer is the same.  That is to say, Japanese model railroaders are as eclectic and diverse as our friends elsewhere around the world.  I have friends who only collect shinkansen, or only collect 115系, for example, although they tend to have every single edition and not limit to N-gauge.  Some friend collect only steam or DMU.  One friend collect only British Steam, as I once did.  Now I have a diverse range of JR-E, but generally restricted to Chuo Main Line, I have good range of Odakyu. Tokyo subway, and shinkansen but, for some strange reason that even I cannot understand, simply refuse to buy an E2.  Yet I have 4 x 200系 and 4 x 300系 ... who knows why?  I have friend who drops cigarette ash on his train and doesn't care too much.  I have friend who go crazy about the tiniest piece of dust.  They measure all part, car gap, light position, etc, to check that the model is correct.

 

People are the same, all over the world.

[cteno4]

Ochanomizu,

 

Thanks, that was exactly my guess, I did not get the feeling that the majority of Japanese collected mainly Tokyo centric. I was hoping someone with some experience with both worlds would comment.

 

Jeff

[katoftw]

So buyers are diverse and MA are not selling niche market models now?

Edited January 27, 2015 by katoftw

[JR 500系]

I always wanted to ask this question, but didn't want to post another new thread just for this. It has something to do with MicroAce too so...

 

Thing is, why are inspection vehicles so hard to find? Apart from Doctor Yellow 923 series, I want an inspection train like the East-I, or 193 series East-I E electric or even Kiya E193 East-I D diesel for normal gauge track inspection, but they are all gone now. Even the Kiya-95 Doctor Tokai is gone.. Let's not even go into the 926 series East-I...

 

Why are inspection trains so quickly off the market? If you browse Yahoo Auctions, these come up and go very quickly. Wouldn't MicroAce sees this as a good chance for business, by either re-releasing the East-I or even better release never been released before models of inspection trains like the Odakyu inspector?

 

Just curious... And in serious need of a track doctor...

[katoftw]

The wonders of Japanese model manufacturers. I dont think it is just inspection vehicles.

 

Micro Ace has announced some more models to be released on the 13th. All but one are HO.

[cteno4]

Japanes producers don't like having large inventories in general (japan really matured just in time manufacturing). Micro ace seems to like getting most all of the units sold in a run via preorders. I think not rerunning really popular things is there way of getting folks to preorder and make it feel,like if you don't you won't get it again.

 

Jeff

[Densha]

At least that way they won't have any excess models left that cost money to store before they are sold.

[cteno4]

The whole idea of just in time manufacturing, no big inventories along the path or end. Keeping stock requires storage, security, fulfillment, interest, etc costs (inventory is money sitting there costing you money but not necessarily making money other than the turnover and keeping customers happy they can get it right away from yor stock). Works ok if you can keep everything coming on time!

 

In this case they just want to do the run and ship most all the units out to dealers when they come in. Doing smaller refill orders is more costly for them, plus they get most all thier money back from the run in a very short time so the run costs are paid off fast (ie not a lot of interest paid if they are doing any loans to cover manufacturing runs now and then. which happens.)

 

I think micro ace just really wants to be the company with the rare stuff that folks will really go for the preorder and not wait to see when it comes out and risk not getting it. They may not have the cash flow to do things any other way and customers seem to go along with it as many of their runs sellout pretty well on preorder or shortly after release.mthis does screw the customer on the things like inspection cars that are so desirable but rarely rerun. Again I think to keep up their rare mystique.

 

Cheers,

 

Jeff

[kvp]

For plastic models, the ideal run size is the one that will use the mould to it's capacity. Thanks to modern technology, now it's possible to make moulds that will only last for a short time but are dirt cheap (at least cheaper). This means it's possible to get the right tooling that lasts for the desired number of preordered and paid for sets. Doing a rerun would cost the same amount that the original run cost, but it's not 100% that the same amount of sets could be sold.On the bright side, with advances in 3D manufacturing, in the future it might be possible to construct only a single set at a time. This means a manufacturer could produce uique sets as the orders come in. Currently this is possible with etched brass, CNC-ed and 3D printed models, but it might be possible with moulded plastics too by using the right technology.

 

So far some small series manufacturers have already switched over to manufacture on order processes, while large manufacturers (like microace) have switched to just in time (or storageless) manufacturing to compete with others. Bulk manufacturers, like Kato or Tomix could compete with this as long as producing in bulk costs way less, so making 100 trains and selling 10 on preorders would get the same income as producing 10 and selling 10 with more expensive manufacturing methods. As long later stock sales bring in more money than the storage needed for them until they are sold, that's a viable alternative. Many manufacturer don't want to take these risks and swithed to just in time manufacturing, meaning no stock left after initial delivery. This is the safer, but less profitable way.

 

Personally i'm for the bulk or manufacture on order ways, because both means you can get any model any time and don't have to watch preorders too much. Also this keeps used prices low, so in the long run more money for the maufacturer, since everyone can buy new sets. It's also good for people running their trains, since it means you can get new spares decades after a set was produced. Then why is just in time so popular, coupled with preorders only production numbers? Because it guarantees a certain return of investement on a short time scale and gets rid of all long time expenses like storage or spare part/customer support and doesn't need a long time business plan. This tinking is really popular nowdays and more and more tranditional companies are switching over to it.

[katoftw]

Both way have their pros and cons for any manufacturing company which kvp explained well. And I can see why companies do both.

 

Personally I detest a company that has everything out of stock. It really makes me have the feelings of not wanting to buy their product. It makes me feel like I'm missing out while I wait and wait and wait. And I end up buying something else that is in stock and my money has goes elsewhere.

 

But JR500 does bring up a good point from his view. If something is highly desired, and hasn't had a production run in quite a while. Why do Japanese model manufacturers ignore this fact?

Edited February 7, 2015 by katoftw

[Mudkip Orange]

 in the future it might be possible to construct only a single set at a time.

 

This is already happening now. There are guys on Shapeways selling MARC bilevels, Silverliner Vs, and other esoteric east coast stock. I've considered buying some on many an occasion.

Edited February 7, 2015 by Mudkip Orange

[cteno4]

A lot has to do with cash flows and ongoing manufacturing relationships that can push companies to go one way or the other. Large runs and having inventory means you need a lot of cash in the bank and steady manufacturing relationships (read keeping the factories and rollers fed well with work).

 

Again I think the not being in production for a long time just gets folks to do the preordering. Just gets folks into the mode that anything that micro ace has coming out if you want it you preorder.

 

I realize we would love to have everything available all the time, but that's just not economically feasible as it would drive up costs and thus prices and thus decrease market desire, a spiral down. Each company needs to balance their resources against their market and do it the way they can keep making a buck.

 

3d printing will help, but still have assembly, painting (3d inkjet printing is getting there), and other parts to stock, hard to keep setting up different assembly lines for super short runs, so this adds a lot of cost compared to the classic larger run, but you do save on tooling costs. Like kvp said, it's the newer short run 3d tooling systems that are probably going to have the biggest effect as the tooling costs were traditionally one of the costliest items and the thing that drove larger runs for decent prices and the hump to getting something produced.

 

Cheers

 

Jeff

[JR 500系]

Interesting discussion ~

 

Thing is, since the moulds are already there, and we can see very evidently on Yahoo Auctions on some very rare and popular sets, wouldn't some re-release of the highly sought after sets generate even more income? Better to place those money into their pockets rather than other sellers, right? In fact it's so popular even 2nd hand sets get sold off more than what people would pay for first hand sets...

 

They can do a pre-order of an old set, like how Tomix did another pre-order run for its 700-7000 Hikari Rail Star (with power couplers) recently.. The mould is there, so I think production is easy and profitable? They can also control the number of inventories through the pre-orders received...

 

A very highly anticipated set would have to be the East-I E926. It's really really rare now...

 

Actually, I was thinking not only for MA, but for ALL inspection trains. Other than the Doctor Yellow, there are almost no other inspection train sets available, unless you count the ones with inspection equipment on regular train sets rather than actual built inspection train sets like the Kiya 193, Dr Tokai etc... Then again, most inspection train sets to date are made by MA....

[katoftw]

I'll throw up an example...

 

Micro Ace A7890 Yufuin no Mori 4 car set. Since October, 1 to 2 sets per week of new or near new used have sold on yahoo for between 22,000 and 24,000 yen. Normal price is 16,000 yen.

 

That is 20 sets (1.5 per week) sold for 6000+ yen that normal retail in 3 months. I have only been tracking this set since returning from Japan in October. And it is only a small window of data. But should be similar for the other 9 months of the year. And that was even with Tomix releasing their version in the period also.

 

Now if they can sell 80 sets a year at inflated prices for new and used models on yahoo. Surely Micro Ace could re-release and sell new at 16,000 yen? And I'm guessing at normal and non inflated prices, you'd be able to sell triple or quaduple for the year? 250-300 sets?

 

Anyone know roughly what a breaking even point would be? Even a vague estimate?

Edited February 8, 2015 by katoftw

[kvp]

 

Anyone know roughly what a breaking even point would be? Even a vague estimate?

Judging from the UK pendolino case, around 1000 sets / production run sold out in preorders to worth considering it. This is around the optimal amount of shells for a throw away prototype mould or the minimal amount for a normal steel mould to worth turning the machine on.

 

For larger companies, around 10000 sets / production run and sold out within a year would be more acceptable. This means that based on your triple sales assumption around 2500-3000 sales / year at inflated prices could trigger a re-release. We had seen both Kato and Tomix do re-releases in the past and also seen Tomytec doing multiple variations with the same form, which usually means making multiple prototype moulds and producing 1000 with each. That's a minimal of 12000 boxes for a single train collection run. I don't know the size of the Japanese model train market, but i'm sure they have more than 1000 people who buy the full series from each collection.

[cteno4]

Estimates of the Japanese model,train market looks to be quite large, probably the largest around the world by sales figures of kato and tomix that bill on the forum once researched.

 

There is a reason that micro ace does business, it works for them!

 

Japanese business practice and distribution is a bit different than in other parts of the world and that also has to be taken into consideration.

 

Cheers

 

Jeff

Edited February 9, 2015 by cteno4