What will replace the E1 & E4 Shinkansens by 2016?

[Eisenbahn]

[smg id=1476]

 

 

Apparently JR East announced in 2011 that the E1 & E4 Shinkansens will be withdrawn by 2016.  That's a lot of capacity to remove as there are 6 E1 12 car sets and 26 E4 8 car sets  at about 100 seats per car making 28,000 seats overall.

 

What will replace them?  Is there a new (unannounced?) double decker Shinkansen under development? Or will this mean the end of double decker Shinkansens in Japan?

 

Curiously, the Chinese chose single level trains for their new high speed network. The Germans only use single level. On the other hand the French are expanding their  Duplex fleet.

 

Does anyone know the actual reason the E1s &E4s are being withdrawn?  Is is the 240km/hr top speed or cost of ownership issues?

 

cheers......Eisenbahn

(Just from a personal level, of all the trains anywhere, the E4 is my favourite ride. Rolling thunder across the Japanese landscape if I could put it poeticly!)

[200系]

Eisenbahn,

 

The E1 series will be replaced by E5 series AFAIK. In fact, if my information is correct, the next 3 E5 formations to be delivered (U8~U10) are earmarked to replace E1 formations, instead of 200 formations (will resume with U11).

 

Does anyone know the actual reason the E1s &E4s are being withdrawn?  Is is the 240km/hr top speed or cost of ownership issues?

 

from what I've read it's mainly the limited top speed indeed. However age is probably playing a role as well, the E1 formations where delivered between 1994 and 1995, so they are allready  17~18 year old at the moment, taking into account the average 20 year life cycle of a Shinkansen formation 2012~2016 sounds about right. Now the E4 series are a bit younger, but in 2016 the oldest E4 formation would still be 19 years old.

 

-Sander

 

PS, just for the information, as the Japanese language has no plural forms (right?), Shinkansen (which is actually the original word for the line, meaning simply 'new trunk/main line) is used both for single as well as multiple trains. just thought i'd throw it in .

[Eisenbahn]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E5_Series_Shinkansen

 

 

Hi Sander,

 

Thanks for your response.  After reading what you said, I looked at the Wikipedia article which identifies there are 55 10 car E5 sets under construction. Curiously there are only 731 seats per train.

It appears that with the addition of Gran Class, JR East are hoping to get the top end of the market that might otherwise fly 1st class, in a competitive move against the airlines.

 

Do you know how JR East will solve the capacity issues at Tokyo station (and elswhere) now that there are many more trains  to handle in order  to get the same number of seats?

Reduced travel time because of the  E5s 320km/hr speed rather than the 240km/hr speed of the E1 & E4 will only be a part of the solution.

 

cheers....Eisenbahn

[disturbman]

This conversation possess the taste of a déjà-vu. 

[Nozomi]

Passenger kilometers on JR East’s shinkansen network are declining for many years. The main reasons are long-term negative developments of an aging (shrinking) population and sluggish economy

Passenger kilometers per fiscal year:

2008: 19,95 million

2009: 19,30 million

2010: 18,15 million

2011: 17,65 million

Passenger revenue from 2008 to 2010 dropped from 490.9 billion yen to 439.5 billion yen. Almost 10 % in just 3 years. They need to sell more expensive tickets (green car and gran class) to make up for the lack of passengers.

There is no need for double deck shinkansen in the future.

[The_Ghan]

Cost and age are probably going to be the major factors. 

 

Personally, I find the stairs double-decker trains a nuisance.  They lengthen the time taken to board a train and require at least one hand free.  I'm not an old guy either.  Certainly, I think the Sydney suburban network, which is all double-decker fleet, would be better served with single decker trains.

 

Cheer

 

The_Ghan

[keitaro]

Cost and age are probably going to be the major factors. 

 

Personally, I find the stairs double-decker trains a nuisance.  They lengthen the time taken to board a train and require at least one hand free.  I'm not an old guy either.  Certainly, I think the Sydney suburban network, which is all double-decker fleet, would be better served with single decker trains.

 

Cheer

 

The_Ghan

 

Not only that they would be more efficient and could handle many more services.

 

from penrith to central you always endup trying to stand on the stairs and shit because they re packed. yes they will seat less but will hold lots more in a time where they are most profitable and it will be much more comfortable standing.

 

 

back on topic theres also those rumors floating about suggesting a E7  is in earlystages of design. it is apparently based off e2 or  e4.

 

nothing official though and there is plenty of talk of both jre and jrw wanting single stock to cut costs by not having to service multiple types.

[to2leo]

If purchasing power is the way to save on cost, shouldn't E5 and E6 cover the demand and satisfaction?  Why need E7?

[westfalen]

Personally I was pleased when the E1's came out, you could see a bit of scenery from upstairs rather than the concrete side of the viaduct all the way to Morioka, the view from a single deck train on the Tohoku Shinkansen is pitiful but then it is just a quick way to get from A to B.

 

All this talk of the ages of various types of Shinkansen that weren't even around when I first visited Japan is making me feel old.

[Eisenbahn]

[smg id=1477]

 

 

Hi Westfalen,

 

Here is that concrete side wall of the Viaduct!  A good reason to be seated on the 2nd floor of an E1 or E4. I read in an Annual Report of JR East (on their website) that half of the Shinkansen trips were business and half for leisure. A perfect capacity match for Double Deckers...Business downstairs & Leisure upstairs!

 

cheers....Eisenbahn

[Eisenbahn]

Nozomi's statistics of an ongoing downturn in demand  explain the puzzle!  Jr East doesnt need all the Shinkansen seats it has out and is currently replacing the E1s at the end of their life cycle with E5s. 

This  downturn will give them a bit of capacity breathing space and take the pressure off bringing out a replacement double decker immediately. It wouldnt surprise me though, about what Keitaro said about a rumour of the development of a replacement double decker under way.  The Chinese recently announced  and released a picture of a new lighter experimental High Speed train made from carbon-fibre composites. I suppose train manufacturers  in france, Germany and Japan are all doing something about carbon-fibre. I suppose we will just have to wait and see if JR East has a new lighter Double decker Sinkansen under way. One made from carbon fibre might give it the  300 plus km/hr speed and the shorter stopping distances like the E5s & E6s.

 

I read somewhere  recently that a German train manufacturer was considering building a double-decker HST to try to sell it to the French Railways. The news story said that the French Railways specify Double deckers when they issue tenders and only the French manufacturer had a double decker product to bid. It would appear to be in everyones interest if the Japanese and the Germans developed new double decker HSTs, even if just for export.  There seems to be an increase in interest in many countries to introduce High speed Trains. In the last few months Indonesia, Israel, India, Thailand have initiated studies.

 

cheers.....Eisenbahn

 

I agree with what Ghan and Keitaro said about the Sydney double decker fleet. When used for suburban/commuter work where people are crammed into standing positions on stairs, Double deckers can be a pain. But on HST long haul runs where everyone is seated, the view from the top deck is a big plus.

[to2leo]

When you say double-decker HST in Germany, do you mean the Twindexx from SBB?

 

I am no engineering background, how crash worthy is carbon fibre?  I bet it is cheaper to build too, depending on the design,

[Eisenbahn]

1.No, the news story was about a yet to be developed double-decker HST by a German manufacturer that could be used to (successfully) bid for a French railways Duplex tender.

This means it would have to be better and cheaper than the current Duplex models offered by the French manufacturer.

 

On the other hand there are so many new countries intending to build a High Speed network, it is likely there would be export sales for a market leading Double-decker HST.

I am hopeful that the Japanese might develop a new one that can operate 300-350km/hr that they can use themselves and also export.

 

2.A Chinese Locomotive company already has a carbon Fibre test train built. I am sorry but I cant now find the newspaper article i read  a few weeks ago in an online English language Chinese paper. There was a photo and the train looked quite sleek.

 

I dont know about the crashworthiness of carbon fibre. The latest airbus and Boeing aircraft use it so I suppose they will have data on crash worthiness.

 

cheers...Eisenbahn

[keitaro]

Nozomi's statistics of an ongoing downturn in demand  explain the puzzle!  Jr East doesnt need all the Shinkansen seats it has out and is currently replacing the E1s at the end of their life cycle with E5s. 

This  downturn will give them a bit of capacity breathing space and take the pressure off bringing out a replacement double decker immediately. It wouldnt surprise me though, about what Keitaro said about a rumour of the development of a replacement double decker under way.  The Chinese recently announced   and released a picture of a new lighter experimental High Speed train made from carbon-fibre composites. I suppose train manufacturers  in france, Germany and Japan are all doing something about carbon-fibre. I suppose we will just have to wait and see if JR East has a new lighter Double decker Sinkansen under way. One made from carbon fibre might give it the  300 plus km/hr speed and the shorter stopping distances like the E5s & E6s.

 

I read somewhere  recently that a German train manufacturer was considering building a double-decker HST to try to sell it to the French Railways. The news story said that the French Railways specify Double deckers when they issue tenders and only the French manufacturer had a double decker product to bid. It would appear to be in everyones interest if the Japanese and the Germans developed new double decker HSTs, even if just for export.  There seems to be an increase in interest in many countries to introduce High speed Trains. In the last few months Indonesia, Israel, India, Thailand have initiated studies.

 

cheers.....Eisenbahn

 

I agree with what Ghan and Keitaro said about the Sydney double decker fleet. When used for suburban/commuter work where people are crammed into standing positions on stairs, Double deckers can be a pain. But on HST long haul runs where everyone is seated, the view from the top deck is a big plus.

 

 

 

 

i hope they don't make the train too light might start flying 

[Eisenbahn]

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/m/qingdao/2012-01/04/content_14379475.htm

 

to2leo & keitaro,

 

Here is the  earlier reference to the train made with "plastic material reinforced with carbon fiber".

from 4 January 2012  www.chinadaily.com.cn

 

I suppose train manufacturers in other countries are working on these materials also.

[westfalen]

[smg id=1477]

 

 

Hi Westfalen,

 

Here is that concrete side wall of the Viaduct!  A good reason to be seated on the 2nd floor of an E1 or E4. I read in an Annual Report of JR East (on their website) that half of the Shinkansen trips were business and half for leisure. A perfect capacity match for Double Deckers...Business downstairs & Leisure upstairs!

 

cheers....Eisenbahn

 

It's worse if you're stuck in a seat on the right hand side, harder to see over the top.

[disturbman]

Who has time to look?! Shinkansen trip are always the same: you board, you seat, you eat maybe and then you fell asleep. Or? 

[The_Ghan]

...

I agree with what Ghan and Keitaro said about the Sydney double decker fleet. When used for suburban/commuter work where people are crammed into standing positions on stairs, Double deckers can be a pain. But on HST long haul runs where everyone is seated, the view from the top deck is a big plus.

 

It seems that Sydney is plagued by Ghost Trains ATM anyway .... 

 

Cheers

 

The_Ghan

[keitaro]

the one i was in this morning looked more like a dump truck train.......

 

vote 1 capital punishment on fraktards who vandalise and vomit everywhere......

 

still i'm kinda hoping for a oldskewl design E7 with newer mechanics to create the ultimate shinkansen 

[The_Ghan]

the one i was in this morning looked more like a dump truck train.......

 

vote 1 capital punishment on fraktards who vandalise and vomit everywhere......

 

still i'm kinda hoping for a oldskewl design E7 with newer mechanics to create the ultimate shinkansen 

 

keitaro,

 

Ghost trains are those which are on the timetable but never seem to appear at the platform .... 

 

I'd like to see the E7 looking more like the 500 series ... but with E6 paint.

 

Cheers

 

The_Ghan

[keitaro]

the one i was in this morning looked more like a dump truck train.......

 

vote 1 capital punishment on fraktards who vandalise and vomit everywhere......

 

still i'm kinda hoping for a oldskewl design E7 with newer mechanics to create the ultimate shinkansen 

 

keitaro,

 

Ghost trains are those which are on the timetable but never seem to appear at the platform .... 

 

I'd like to see the E7 looking more like the 500 series ... but with E6 paint.

 

Cheers

 

The_Ghan

 

oh i thought you were reffering to those with no lights on at night time .... 

 

lol at the noob driver at epping today 2 n half cars over the platform in the tunnel. he didn't even reverse lol

 

 

i'm not sure about a 500 why not a 0 series nose extending up to a double decker size that shapes out like the  500-7000 kinda look with E6 colors.

[Guest ___]

We all damn well know the E7 will have an E5/E6 700N nose, only to keep with the new noise busting tradition of design the nose itself will be roughly 30% of the length of the lead and trailing cars. Just imagine it now, the longest train they could possibly ever run would be 15 cars because the nose on both ends would equate to nearly a full car itself. Of course all that extra space could be put to good use. Example baggage, or possbily a new brown class pax car for those wishing to pay less than unreserved fare. A real modern day steerage.  :angry6:

[Nozomi]

Look on the bright side: If someone doesn't like state-of-the-art new train designs, that one saves a lot on models!

[westfalen]

the one i was in this morning looked more like a dump truck train.......

 

vote 1 capital punishment on fraktards who vandalise and vomit everywhere......

 

still i'm kinda hoping for a oldskewl design E7 with newer mechanics to create the ultimate shinkansen 

 

keitaro,

 

Ghost trains are those which are on the timetable but never seem to appear at the platform .... 

 

I'd like to see the E7 looking more like the 500 series ... but with E6 paint.

 

Cheers

 

The_Ghan

 

oh i thought you were reffering to those with no lights on at night time .... 

 

lol at the noob driver at epping today 2 n half cars over the platform in the tunnel. he didn't even reverse lol

 

 

i'm not sure about a 500 why not a 0 series nose extending up to a double decker size that shapes out like the  500-7000 kinda look with E6 colors.

Overshooting happens to even the best drivers occasionally. If there's another train close behind control just gets you to keep going as setting back more than half a car requires special authority in case you encroach on the circuit of the signal behind you, and getting that authority takes 5 to 10 minutes.

[The_Ghan]

That sounds like a dangerous practice compromising the safety of the passengers in the lead car, west.

 

Cheers

 

The_Ghan