Australian East Coast HSR

[linkey]

Yes I know this isn't Japanese, but I do wonder would the Australian Government be happy to get some of the Japanese Shinkansen fleet to do this HSR from Melbourne - Canberra - Sydney - Brisbane?

 

http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/9954649/high-speed-rail-report-due-on-thursday/

 

Sydney to Melbourne in 3 hrs by HSR? I would like to see that done with an E5 shinkansen :D

[The_Ghan]

Hi linkey,

 

I hate to shatter your dreams but I first heard about HSR for Australia's east coast before I entered highschool ... I entered highschool in 1979 ... 

 

Cheers

 

The_Ghan

[westfalen]

Not again, is there an election due? If they'd actually built the thing when it was first discussed instead of endless feasibility studies the first trains would be getting retired now like the 100 and 300 series, and Jetstar and Virgin Blue would never have existed.

 

Maybe Julia has sussed out a good deal on some cheap Chinese trains.

[Mudkip Orange]

Achievable by 2024.

 

You don't say.

[disturbman]

I hate to shatter your dreams but I first heard about HSR for Australia's east coast before I entered highschool ... I entered highschool in 1979 ... 

 

Well, wouldn't it be nice if this was going to become true one day? 

[alpineaustralia]

Never will while she insistes "I dont want a big Auuuuustralia but a sustainable Auuuuuustralia".

Unfortunately, you need a big Australia to fund the building and ongoing use of the project which doesnt stack up for a population of 22 million people

[keitaro]

it's feasable for syd to canberra to melbourne. we wouldn't need as many services as jpn has but a few 16 car runs in the morning and afew in the arvo.

 

Biggest issue is they will kill the air industry for many local routes if they do it.

[The_Ghan]

it's feasable for syd to canberra to melbourne. we wouldn't need as many services as jpn has but a few 16 car runs in the morning and afew in the arvo.

 

Biggest issue is they will kill the air industry for many local routes if they do it.

 

I don't think its feasable.  We just don't have the reliable local rail infrastructure of Japan and Europe.  I'm tiring of bashing CityRail but it just isn't extensive enough and frequent enough to properly link in with HSR.  Think about your trips to Japan and Europe.  Surely, you had a short walk with your bags or short taxi ride to local station where you caught a local train to the HSR station, changed to the correct platform, seemlessly boarded your HST and did the reverse at the other end.  Here in Sydney you're just not going to do that from Blacktown, Chatswood, or Engadine.  The local trains are too infrequent, inconvenient with their double-decker design, and have nowhere to store luggage, etc.  Here in Sydney, you'll probably take a taxi all the way to the HSR station and fork out up to $50 for the fare.  If you're going to do that you may as well take a plane.

 

Further, when Tiger, Virgin and Jetstar all offer sub $100 fares one way what price would you accept to travel HSR?  It would want to be sub $70 ... which I think is not sustainable.  Consists would probably be limited to 8-10 cars because we just don't build long platforms and the demand would not be there for longer trains.

 

The Tokaido Shinkansen from Tokyo to Shin-Osaka is around 500km long and I believe has around 150 million passengers per year.  Sydney to Melbourne via Canberra and Wagga Wagga is nearly 900km  I'd be surprised if you would get more than 20 x 8-10 car consists in each direction with, say 90% occupancy, we'd be lucky to move 10 million people per year.

 

There are 42 Qantas / Jetstar flights each way between SYD and MEL each day.  Planes range from A320, 737-400, 737-800, and plenty of 767-300. There's another 30 or so flights between Tiger and Virgin.  Say 200 pax per flight, the annual load for the sector would be around 1.02 million per year.  So, the HSR would need to find another 9 million pax and I haven't even allowed for those fliers who have connecting flights and would therefore choose to fly instead of travel by rail.  At those sort of numbers the whole project is a pipe-dream.

 

The only alternative then, it to ramp up freight and put it on HSR.  Do you think the trucking industry will let that happen?  Again, we don't have the right infrastructure at either end.  HSR would need to link to Port Botany, Port Kembla, Dubbo, etc.  So, you see how complicated its getting.

 

That's why profitable HSR will not come to Australia in my lifetime.

 

Cheers

 

The_Ghan

[disturbman]

So first thing first, if High Speed Rail freight is on a paper sexy idea it doesn't really make sense. Because HSR is expensive and most of the item you have to move around by rail are not time sensitive and therefore of a very low value. To make it valuable you'll need to move around goods that are expensive and needs to go somewhere fast... if not, the rest, can take the longer road. The only projects of HSR freight is for premium mail (UPS, Fed Ex, EMS...) that people value enough to pay a premium for them to fly.

 

As far as the ticket price is concerned most of the people I know (myself included) do not care so much about the price of the ticket. If it's in the range of what the airlines offer, that's okay. I usually agree to even pay a small premium (10 to 20% on a basic 100€ ticket) if I can get the commodity not to to have to go through the whole airport experience which is a real pain.

 

For memory the SNCF have starter price around 20€ for a Paris-Marseilles (3h, 750km or something like that) for it's normal offer and even 15€ for the "low-cost" train. In general the whole treck, back and forth is around a 100€. The only thing is, SNCF's politic is of volume and I don't think Australia can tackle the same amount of volume as the Paris to the Alpes and the Mediterranean Sea corridor (Paris - Lyon - Marseilles). But there is other thriving LGV between Paris and less populated areas of France (like Paris - Bordeaux or Paris - Rennes).

 

The only question is, how big is the market and how strongly are those regions economically interconnected. The air traffic is an interesting data but clearly insufficient. You have to look at the total market (air + rail + road). Because actually, all the HSR line I know of have managed to increase the size of the market (air + rail) they are serving.

 

Another point 900km can be done in around 4h if the stop pattern is not too dense and if the line is build for very high speed >+300kph. And 4h is highly competitive with domestic airlines (even with final treck involved). Because pardon me if I'm wrong but wherever you look, it's more difficult to get to an airport than a station. Usually stations are build around the center of a city (meaning that most of the inhabitants of the city are equally distant to it) where as an airport is most of the time outside of the city and not easily accessible for most the resident of an urban area. And if both are highly hard to get, then they are equal to start with and accessibility is not an issue.

 

Last but not least, the "we don't have the reliable local rail infrastructure of Japan and Europe" is the moto of some opponents to HSR in the states. It's a moot point. It's only an excuse not to get started because they actually (most of the time) don't want their state to invest in something they only see as a boondoggle. The idea being, if you don't have infrastructure to reach a station then you don't have it to reach the airport. Also, the fact that "Automobile Land" (meaning California) is moving forward toward a stade-wide system when lacking "Japanese and European style rail infrastructure" should tell you that it doesn't really matter. The ridership projections are there, there is no reason for them to fail when everybody else have only succeeded. I could go again about the killed HSR line in Florida. No rail infrastructure around and sprawling cities but a strong business case. That line was only kill for political reasons.

 

Same goes if you look at Amtrack Inter-city they are doing pretty fine even though they are lacking any local rail network in most of their destinations.

 

So no, this is not (in my opinion) a valid objection.

 

The real kicker is to know how much this HSR could cost and how many people will ride it and at which price. This is what will deemed the project financially viable or not and that will decide if it's going to be run. Basically, if you have some secondary interesting markets on the way I think to link a 4 million people urban area to a 5 one should be worthwhile. But to decide you need thorough research, not assumptions.

 

:)

[marknewton]

I agree with disturbman observations, in particular not having "reliable local rail infrastructure", which is just a lame excuse not to build high-speed rail, not a valid objection. We won't see HSR passenger or freight rail built here for three simple reasons.

 

No real political will or commitment, at any level of government, by any political party.

 

The airline industry will fight tooth and nail to prevent it happening.

 

The road transport industry will fight tooth and nail to prevent it happening.

 

As for CityRail, if I agree for a moment on your assertion that it's not extensive or frequent enough, why is that? Again, no real political will or commitment, at any level of government, by any political party. You can flog us as much as you like for our alleged failings, but the poor decisions that continually hamstring our efforts are made by the government of the day, not us.

 

Cheers,

 

Mark.

[keitaro]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-04/bligh-backs-high-speed-rail-network/2824192

 

another news article.

 

In My opinion not just because i'm a rail fan, australia should be building a hsr on the east coast. It has so many benfits for the future of australia. If we leave it too long it will be too late to do as more and more land is being used and cost will soar in the next 15 years to do these kinds of projects.

[The_Ghan]

Perhaps my last message came across the wrong way.  While I was explaining my reasoning for never seeing Australian HSR in my lifetime, I must confirm my position: I am ver pro-HSR

 

Disturbman's points are valid.  I didn't consider a lot of things: existing rail, bus and car volumes, for example.  I agree also that HSR can generate business that was never there.  For example: If you can get from, say, Central to Mittagong or Gosford in 30-40 minutes then those centres are suddenly opened up for residential expansion.  We saw it a decade ago when the M5 and M5 east were built opening up the south-west as far a Bowral to new residential expansion.

 

Sadly, Mark's points have been demonstrated to be true time and time again.  But ironically, HSR is probably a key requirement for Sydney's second airport to go ahead and would make regions like Goulburn viable in that regard.

 

Unfortunately, linkey's suggestion of obtaining secondhand Japanese technology is just too logical basic for our politicians to accept.  We had the same chance with digital TV but no, we had to go and develop a unique 8-bit technology with a parity bit instead of the 7-bit version that the rest of the world uses, meaning that we get each digital innovation LAST. I can just see the Australian government doing something equally stupid with HSR and I dare say that my sarcasm is well-founded.

 

However, we can fantisise, if I've spelled that correctly.  I am now the world's first Trillionaire businessman and I've come to you for some planning advice.  What route would you take from Sydney to Melbourne?  I'd start with Sydney (and I believe there is some disused underground infrastructure near the mortuary platform at Central) and remain underground until the Homebush area, where there is plenty of land available to come out of the ground, and continue west to Parramatta for the first stop.  Parramatta would be flagged as a future hub for northern and western lines but the first line would then head south to Liverpool.  From there the stations would be:

Sydney

Parramatta

Liverpool

Camden

Picton

Bargo

Mittagong

Moss Vale

Bundanoon

Goulburn

Canberra

Gundagai

Wagga Wagga

Aubury/Wodonga

Wangaratta

Shepparton

Nagambie

Seymour

Broadford

Wandong

... and someone else can guide us into Melbourne  

 

At the rate we're going we'll have the damn thing built before the politicians even know !!!

 

Cheers

 

The_Ghan

[westfalen]

I agree with disturbman observations, in particular not having "reliable local rail infrastructure", which is just a lame excuse not to build high-speed rail, not a valid objection. We won't see HSR passenger or freight rail built here for three simple reasons.

 

No real political will or commitment, at any level of government, by any political party.

 

The airline industry will fight tooth and nail to prevent it happening.

 

The road transport industry will fight tooth and nail to prevent it happening.

 

As for CityRail, if I agree for a moment on your assertion that it's not extensive or frequent enough, why is that? Again, no real political will or commitment, at any level of government, by any political party. You can flog us as much as you like for our alleged failings, but the poor decisions that continually hamstring our efforts are made by the government of the day, not us.

 

Cheers,

 

Mark.

You've hit the nail on the head we need politicians with guts. The politicians are always talking about doing the best for the environment, what could be better than taking every airliner, truck and bus that plies its trade between Sydney and Melbourne and sending them to the scrap yard. HSR should be looked at in wider terms than the financial ones.

[Mudkip Orange]

I view Sydney-Canberra-Melbourne the same way I view the Texas Triangle - a HSR corridor so obvious, that any "studies" or "research" that ask the question of "should" are simply obfuscation.

 

The only legitimate use for studies in these corridors is "how."

[disturbman]

One thing, if the airlines would be a problem, it's always possible to offer them a seat on the project. Even more if the HSR is build as a PPP. It wouldn't be stupid for an airline to get associated in the operational part and even lend it's branding to such a high profile project. I could envision "Quantas Trains", red with a white kangaroo. Those trains would be a neat and I think it will give a different flavor to the modal shift. I even think it could encourage that shift (by appeal of branding and transfer of passengers).

 

I never understood why airlines didn't tried to join the movement (Air France was having plan to run a HST franchise with Veolia two years ago) since they could benefit a lot from HSR. I mean, it's not as if airlines were that much profitable and if they had a clear future ahead of them. They always are under the threat of rising oil-prices. HSR has a much more stable economical profile.

 

Another point is, in general regional air connections are not very profitable. The money is in the long distance, inter-continental. Regional routes are only interesting as a feeder system but we are now seeing a slight shift away from the traditional hubs (this is the bet behind the B787 vs A380) toward international connection on medium platforms. The feeder system can then be taken of the air on put on rails which leaves more slots in usually congested airports for more profitable routes. Anyway as France example shows, even with HSR there is still a future for airlines on such 3 to 4 hours (by HST) routes. It's not their death, just a scale down.

 

And last point, about our stupid politics (I can assure you they are in some way the same everywhere - France and it's Minitel is a famous failure that impeded somewhat the development of Internet in its first years), if you don't like their ideas you should become militant, create an association to spread what you think (with studies, interviews...) is good business/policies and raise consciousness about the matter in the general population and in the politic classes. But you have to act before it's too late.

 

Question, is there medium sized cities between Sydney and Melbourne that could be add to the line without too much detour?

[Mudkip Orange]

Absolutely. Seamless luggage transfer between plane and HSR is the holy grail, since there's always going to be O/D pairs that don't fit rail's profile. In my case, the Keystone is perfectly adequate for getting to Philly, but even the fastest Nozomi would take about 12 hours to get to Houston - whereas Southwest only takes 5 1/2 now - an hour to drive to BWI, an hour for security theater, 3 1/2 for the flight.

[westfalen]

One thing, if the airlines would be a problem, it's always possible to offer them a seat on the project. Even more if the HSR is build as a PPP. It wouldn't be stupid for an airline to get associated in the operational part and even lend it's branding to such a high profile project. I could envision "Quantas Trains", red with a white kangaroo. Those trains would be a neat and I think it will give a different flavor to the modal shift. I even think it could encourage that shift (by appeal of branding and transfer of passengers).

 

I never understood why airlines didn't tried to join the movement (Air France was having plan to run a HST franchise with Veolia two years ago) since they could benefit a lot from HSR. I mean, it's not as if airlines were that much profitable and if they had a clear future ahead of them. They always are under the threat of rising oil-prices. HSR has a much more stable economical profile.

 

Another point is, in general regional air connections are not very profitable. The money is in the long distance, inter-continental. Regional routes are only interesting as a feeder system but we are now seeing a slight shift away from the traditional hubs (this is the bet behind the B787 vs A380) toward international connection on medium platforms. The feeder system can then be taken of the air on put on rails which leaves more slots in usually congested airports for more profitable routes. Anyway as France example shows, even with HSR there is still a future for airlines on such 3 to 4 hours (by HST) routes. It's not their death, just a scale down.

 

And last point, about our stupid politics (I can assure you they are in some way the same everywhere - France and it's Minitel is a famous failure that impeded somewhat the development of Internet in its first years), if you don't like their ideas you should become militant, create an association to spread what you think (with studies, interviews...) is good business/policies and raise consciousness about the matter in the general population and in the politic classes. But you have to act before it's too late.

 

Question, is there medium sized cities between Sydney and Melbourne that could be add to the line without too much detour?

Maybe what we need is transportation companies rather than airlines, railways, trucking companies and so on so that one form of transport wouldn't always be seen as competing with another. Something like the old Canadian Pacific who had a hand in everything.

 

Your last question could be the biggest problem with HSR in Australia, once you leave the state capitals population thins out dramatically.

[keitaro]

 

Question, is there medium sized cities between Sydney and Melbourne that could be add to the line without too much detour?

Maybe what we need is transportation companies rather than airlines, railways, trucking companies and so on so that one form of transport wouldn't always be seen as competing with another. Something like the old Canadian Pacific who had a hand in everything.

 

Your last question could be the biggest problem with HSR in Australia, once you leave the state capitals population thins out dramatically.

 

theres canberra. if you want to call it a city....

Perhaps this is one of the main reasons there is no population out there due to lack of infrastructure out there.

 

I'm pretty sure if a hsr were going to newcastle and a dedicated freight line it would boost expansion same for wagga and other areas alike.

 

another article http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/high-speed-rail-100b-price-worth-it-federal-government-says/story-e6frf7jx-1226108440582

[The_Ghan]

 

Question, is there medium sized cities between Sydney and Melbourne that could be add to the line without too much detour?

 

 

disturbman, if you scroll up you will see my list of cities / towns served, in order.  I'll do an edit to indicate city/town size.  This is Australia, remember!  Nothing between Sydney and Melbourne has even 1/10th of the population of Sydney metro area.  I might even do a breakdown into what I think would equal a Nozomi, Hikari and Kodama service.  Speaking of which, I wonder what the Aussie terms would be?

 

Cheers

 

The_Ghan

[keitaro]

 

if we do it i hope we use jpn to do it. i want 500's 800's and  the E5/6 mix

[The_Ghan]

500 series, I wish!  Unfortunately the technology is now 15 years old.  The 800 series is too slow.

 

I don't know what capacity trains we would need, but an E5 without the Gran class, and possibly shortened to 7 or 8 cars would, I guess, fit the bill.  However, there is the N700-I - the "official" export version of the N700 series, capable of 330km/h.  It comes standard as an 8 car set.  Perfect.

 

I'm a big fan of shelf products but just watch some idiot here decide that we need to design our own.  Someone will dust off an old motor rail and weld on a pair of batman wings or something ... and paint the doors yellow!

 

Cheers

 

The_Ghan

[westfalen]

 

I'm a big fan of shelf products but just watch some idiot here decide that we need to design our own.  Someone will dust off an old motor rail and weld on a pair of batman wings or something ... and paint the doors yellow!

 

Cheers

 

The_Ghan

That should be good for another ten years of studies and a few more committees.   I'll offer my services as a consultant to decide on the shade of yellow.

[disturbman]

With what I've heard about the 500 Series in this forum I wouldn't want them to have them as rolling-stock on a new HSR. Plus, as the Ghan noted they are outdated.

 

For shelf HSR, you have:

- Siemens' Velaro

- Alstom's AGV and/or TGV

- Bombardier's Zephiro

- N700-I

- Hyundai-Rotem's KTX II

 

And I think Talgo and CAF might have some offerings too.

 

That's plenty to choose from. ;)

[marknewton]

I might even do a breakdown into what I think would equal a Nozomi, Hikari and Kodama service.  Speaking of which, I wonder what the Aussie terms would be?

 

Late, Very Late, and Cancelled. 

 

Cheers,

 

Mark.

[The_Ghan]

Mark,

 

Ahhh, now it's YOU bagging out the railways.  I didn't want to be the one to make the suggestion.

 

Cheers

 

The_Ghan

BTW, when The Ghan runs late it does so with style and people turn out to applaud the late arrival!