Brazil HSR- contractor decision by December

[bikkuri bahn]

Quote:

According to rules released the same day, bidders are required to submit their tenders no later than Nov. 29. Bids will be evaluated mainly on which team can offer the lowest fares. The result will be announced on Dec. 16.

 

Ha! If that is the overriding criteria(the "Walmart route"), just go with the Chinese bid- you'll get good German (Siemens) and Japanese (KHI) technology to boot, "fully digested" of course :icon_scratch:

 

Article:

http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20100714D14EE856.htm

[bikkuri bahn]

Interesting development:

Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd. decided last year not to bid as a main contractor after determining that demand for the service would be insufficient, the report said.

 

Now, is this project example of overoptimism on the part of Brazil?  I don't know the specifics of Brazil's economic/social climate, but I wonder if this project potentially mirrors South Africa's Gautrain, which is already being criticized as being a conveyance for the well-off, when the working poor still need better, more affordable transportation options.

 

Source(note another Japanese consortium is thinking about bidding):

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-14/hitachi-toshiba-mitsui-consider-bid-for-brazil-rail-project-nikkei-says.html

[Nick_Burman]

BB, the whole project has been fraught with more controversy that I can put into print into this forum. One consortium (RENFE/CAF) already whined that it won't participate and another one (headed by Italian firms) offered to build the line free of charge for the Government (no public monies involved) - or so it was said. The "Mollusc" almost bit that bait and nearly signed the contract, however the Federal Audits Court said "wait a mo' " and decided that the project should go to tender, which what is now happening. Obviously there will be a lot of jostling from the part of the consortiums willing to bid for the project.

 

The project for a high speed train linking Rio and Sao Paulo has been going on and off for the last 30 years or so. However Brazil's recent economic spurt (the forecast for this year is for the economy to grow at a 5% rate) has put its infrastructure almost to straining point. Airports are working to capacity (try boarding a flight on the Rio-SP route on Friday evening...it's nightmarish) and last year the air network almost collapsed because of radar failures and excessive air traffic. Delays are quite frequent. Both Rio's and SP's main domestic airports are inside densely occupied urban areas, which makes their operation both a nuisance and a menace - remember the last accident with a TAM flight which slid on the runway, crossed an avenue and demolished an air freight warehouse before exploding and killing all passengers and crew.

 

The alternative is traveling by road - when things are OK it's an 5 1/2h trip (6h by bus), however traffic jams at both ends of the route are a major nuisance. The road was built in the late 1940's with US money and although much modernized today it still has some very dangerous spots. From time to time there is a nasty crash and if you get caught in the resulting jam your trip can be extended indefinitively.

 

There is an “normal” railroad connecting both towns, but it has been freight-only for the last 15 years or so. Even when it had passenger service the best train took 10 to 12 hours to cover the 600Km between SP and Rio. And no matter how much you straighten the tracks, there is a limit on how much you can interface fast passenger train services with slogging freights.

 

The idea of a HST connecting SP and Rio is that it will allow to de-congest the air network and will also permit some airports (namely Sao Paulo's Congonhas Airport) to be closed and their traffic moved elsewhere (to Guarulhos International Airport in the case of SP - some international flights will be then transferred to Viracopos Airport near Campinas some 60 miles NW of SP, also to be on the HST line). These transfers can only be effected if there is a high-speed rail link, otherwise getting to the new airport locations by road during rush-hour is a near-impossibility. Hopefully the HST will also persuade people to travel less by car. Also the consumer could do with an alternative as the air and coach companies have just about cornered the transportation market.

 

The cap on ticket prices makes sense if you remember that according to official statistics 10% of the Brazilian population hold title to 90% of the country's wealth. Although the recent economic growth and the government's social programs have done a lot (or so they say...) to raise a sizable parcel of the population out of poverty (into what the official statistics call “the middle class”, or what between us could be called “slightly less poor” or “remedied”) , few people have much money to travel much beyond the next corner...so capping ticket prices raises the chances of filling the trains.

 

Cheers NB

(Sao Paulo, Brazil)

[to2leo]

Hi Nick,

Thank you for your insightful knowledge into the HSR development in Brazil.

I think it is a wonderful opportunity to finally make meaningful changes that will benefit Brazil into becoming one of the developed nations in the Southern Hemisphere.

 

I am a little worried about Brazil in terms of rewarding to the lowest bidder since there is always a price to pay.

 

I would rather hope Brazil is going to work with a company that is providing a product that is considerate of the local climate, resources and existing infrastructures.

[bikkuri bahn]

Thanks NB for filling in the details.  I was surprised by the December date, as I thought bids were already submitted in May.  But I see that things are more complicated than it appears.  Didn't know about the freight-only status of the existing rail line either.  I would think that building an HSR line from scratch would appeal to Japanese bidders, as the system they favor avoids sharing of track with slower conventional passenger (and freight) trains.

[Nick_Burman]

Thanks NB for filling in the details.  I was surprised by the December date, as I thought bids were already submitted in May.  But I see that things are more complicated than it appears.  Didn't know about the freight-only status of the existing rail line either.  I would think that building an HSR line from scratch would appeal to Japanese bidders, as the system they favor avoids sharing of track with slower conventional passenger (and freight) trains.

 

BB, the Italian consortium who tried to bait the government into letting it build the line (which BTW the complete route is Campinas - Viracopos Airport - Sao Paulo - Guarulhos Airport - Tom Jobim Airport [Rio] - Rio) without submitting to a tender had one caveat - they wanted to build the line without intermediate stops (of which there are 3 planned, at the intermediate towns of Volta Redonda [for the CSN steel mill], Aparecida [for the National Basilica - huge potential traffic generator on weekends and holidays] and Sao Jose dos Campos [city near SP with concentration of high-tech industries]), which frankly is ridiculous (imagine Tokyo-Osaka without stops?). There was loud squealing in the press (both ordinary and specialized) and the Federal Audits Court stepped in, requesting a revision of the project. This revision was only finished a month ago or so and the FAC gave the government the go-ahead...with an international tender, if you please.

 

Sao Paulo and Rio are linked by the broad-gauge (63” gauge) former Central Railway of Brazil main line (euphemistically known as the “Sao Paulo Branch”, notwithstanding the fact that the line was the road’s money-spinner). Even in the best days it was always a 45mph (80km/h) railroad, hampered by sharp curvature and a terrific ascent of the coastal escarpment out of Rio. Most of the curvature was ironed out in several steps between WWII and the 1970’s, however the line stayed stuck with its speed limit. The only time this mark was passed was during a brief period when Ganz-Mavag diesel trainsets were tested on the line. One even hit a maximum speed of 120Km/h during tests, however they never ran on commercial service at that speed. They were very failure-prone and always required a helper loco on the escarpment. Quickly declared a fiasco, they were transferred elsewhere and service reverted to its usual mix of ACF heavyweight coaches, Budd streamline cars and RDCs, hauled by everything from Alco FAs, RS-3s, RSD-12s to GE export diesels and EMD SD40-2s. Such a service was of course easy prey to air and highway competition. The last “train-off” was about 15 years ago, when the former Federal Railways were privatized and the new concessionaires wanted nothing to do with passenger trains.

 

BTW, “Mollusc” is how many Brazilians (me included) disparagingly refer to president Lula (because Lula = Octopus = a member of the mollusca family...). Although he has an approval rating of over 80%, many Brazilians (chiefly that minority who knows how to read a newspaper...) see him for what his really is, a semi-literate demagogue. Mind you, the opposition leaves little to be desired....

 

Cheers NB

[Nick_Burman]

Hi Nick,

Thank you for your insightful knowledge into the HSR development in Brazil.

I think it is a wonderful opportunity to finally make meaningful changes that will benefit Brazil into becoming one of the developed nations in the Southern Hemisphere.

 

I am a little worried about Brazil in terms of rewarding to the lowest bidder since there is always a price to pay.

 

I would rather hope Brazil is going to work with a company that is providing a product that is considerate of the local climate, resources and existing infrastructures.

 

            Brazil has always been touted as “the country of the future”, however the future never seems to arrive in Brazil...everything gets shoved towards a “tomorrow” which never seems to come. In the meantime the country stumbles on with things never done quite adequately. The HST project only came off this time because of the scare caused by the air traffic crisis and the various air accidents over the last few years. Brazilians as a whole are more reactive than proactive and that shows. I (and other, wiser, Brazilians) say that the word “planning” is a kind of anathema which does not exist in a Portuguese dictionary.

 

Come to think about it, the whole project is worrisome. Anything can go awry and with the avarice and greed of our politicians (which neither Washington nor Ottawa can even match....) the scope for graft and corruption is ample. I hope it pulls out OK, however if it goes bad it is going to be the poor Brazilian taxpayer who will pick the tab...

 

I believe that the trains will be tailored to local conditions as the project requires all the system suppliers to transfer technology to domestic manufacturers. This would not be possible if the trains were 100% off-the-shelf.

 

Cheers NB

[bikkuri bahn]

Japanese companies decide to pass on the Brazil HSR project.  Terms were too unattractive regarding profitability projections.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE6AO08I20101126

[bikkuri bahn]

First time I heard of specific private sector involvement in this proposed project.  Now that the Japanese and Europeans have withdrawn their offers, looks as though the Koreans (and Chinese?- depends on whether they can get resource concessions from Brazil, probably) are only left:

 

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2010/12/21/batista-seeks-south-korean-partner-brazil-bullet-train-report/