Hokkaido...Many Years from Now...

[TestudoToTetsudo]

So I realize that the Hokkaido Shinkansen extension to Sapporo is not going to open until 2030 or so, but was curious if we know yet what the resulting impacts to the conventional JR Lines will be? 

 

Obviously there won't be much of a need for the Hokuto/Super Hokuto Limited Expresses anymore, but do we know if any sections are slated for transfer to Third Sector Railways (like was done with the South Hokkaido Railway when the line to Shin-Hakodate-Hokuto opened)?  Or is the commuter, local and/or freight traffic between Hakodate and the Sapporo region enough to justify continued JR local train operations?  Curious if we know now since it sounds like the transfer to South Hokkaido Railway was known a decade before it happened...

 

Also, I read somewhere that the President of JR Hokkaido wants to rationalize nearly half of the network, such as by making much of the line to Wakkanai a Third Sector operation.  Does anyone have a list or map of which lines were identified?

 

Curious how much will be left (or left as JR vs. Third Sector) in the future, as I would love to check out more of Hokkaido in the future, but will unlikely be able to visit until at least the Sapporo Shinkansen opens...

[Tony Galiani]

I got to ride the Hokuto this past February from Hakodate up to Onumakoen - along with quite a few other people going to the Quasi National Park there.  I expect a lot of people on the train were heading to Sapporo but I think many people were going to stations along the line so it seems logical that it should be kept in use.  And we saw freight activity as well - not sure there is an alternate route if that line goes out of service.

 

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.  We hope to get back to Hokkaido again and riding some of these lines is on my wish list.  Hakodate is a shadow of its former self nowadays - can't imagine what the station would end up like if/when the Hokutos stop running.  The only other activity there now seems to be the Hakodate Liner connecting the station to the Shinkansen Line and the South Hokkaido Railway.

 

Ciao,

Tony

[lighthouse]

Unfortunately, the information I have been able to gather so far does not look very good.

 

Many JR Hokkaido routes are in the red, only the area between Otaru-Sapporo-Asahikawa, Sapporo-Chitose (Airport)-Muroran and the greater Sapporo area are currently in the black. The loss-making routes are repeatedly discussed for closure or third-sector companies, but in some cases this cannot be implemented because the passenger numbers are not yet sufficient to justify closure. That is why there are also routes to Kushiro/Nemuro, Kitami/Abashiri and Wakkanai. The east of Hokkaido is trying to develop more for tourism, which may result in the survival of the routes to Nemuro and Kushiro-Shari-Abashiri. The Otaru-Kutchan-Oshamambe route will definitely be closed once the Shinkansen route is completed.

 

There are currently no plans from JR or the government here. What has raised eyebrows, however, are plans to build a Shinkansen extension from Shin-Hakodate Hokuto and Hakodate. So far, this idea has not progressed any further, but I can imagine that the Super Hokuto / Hokuto will eventually mutate into a Shinkansen. The Hakodate Line between Goryokaku and Muroran cannot be shut down, however. There is still important freight traffic between Honshu and Hokkaido. However, J.R.F. has already announced in a press release that it cannot and does not want to take over an entire route due to the high costs. Therefore, negotiations are still underway on what the traffic will look like from 2030...

 

What is currently being planned and built, however, is a new connection to New Chitose Airport. A new connecting curve (coming from Asahikawa via the Muroran Line) and a southern connection (from Numanohata via the Chitose Line) are to be built. This also means that the route from Iwamizawa via Oiwake has to be electrified, because diesel vehicles are currently no longer allowed at New Chitose Airport station.

 

With a bit of luck, traffic could increase again with the connection in Sapporo?

[Tony Galiani]

It is a tough situation with 20% of Japan's land mass but a small and declining population.  IIRC, I read an article where some companies were looking to relocate or expand to Hokkaido in the face of climate change but not sure that would make enough of a difference to improve things.

 

My current plan / hope is to go there in the next year or so to ride some of the lines in the north.  Having watched the NHK Train Cruise on the Soya Main Line, that has been on my list for a while as well as the line to Abashiri via Engaru.  Time will tell if I can make that happen.

 

Ciao,

Tony

[Tony Galiani]

Speaking of Hokkaido, youtuber Matuno Kura has a series of Hokkaido videos.  This one has a lot of great distance views:

Usually, he has a date on them but this one does not seem to have one (or one that I could find).  According to my iPhone translation this is the Ishikita Main Line.

Cheers,

Tony

[chadbag]

My son rode the 789 Series Kamui series this past Friday when he was transferred from Sapporo to Asahikawa.  I had to ask how he got to Asahikawa and he mentioned it.  When he was a kid he was big into trains and watched Japanese train DVDs all the time.    

 

We've only been to Hokkaido once as a family and rode from Hakodate to Sapporo and also out to Lavender Farms.   Hokkaido is an interesting place in Japan and I'm learning more about it as our son reports weekly in his calls.