Model Railroad Market in Japan

[bill937ca]

Since at least 2009 Yano Research has been tracking the size of the model railroad market in Japan.

 

I came across a 2016 study by Yano Research of the Otaku Market in Japan. The first question was do you recognize yourself as an Otaku or have you been told by someone else you are an Otaku? 1884 of 9876 people answered yes, or 19.01%. If the answer was yes there were 20 categories  where the respondent was asked how much money was spent annually.

 

Model railroads came in 5th in 2016 at 25,891 Yen per Otaku. Participation was 77 of 1884 or 4.08%.  

 

By 2022 the online survey had grown to 26 categories of Otaku activity. It is taken each summer, usually in August although not always.

 

The Model Railroad market segment is defined as:

 

Models of railroads with reduced scale of the real railroads and gauges (the inner width between the two rails). Train cars, diorama, rails, power units are included. The market size is calculated based on the domestic shipment value.   

 

There are a couple of  press releases online that give the estimated market population and annual amount consumed per person for 6 of the last 7 years.

https://www.yanoresearch.com/en/press-release/show/press_id/2047

https://www.yanoresearch.com/en/press-release/show/press_id/3100

https://www.yanoresearch.com/press/pdf/1628.pdf

 

Estimated Market Population

2016...670,000

2017...650,000

2018...390,000

2020...420,000

2021...400,000

2022...480,000

 

Average Annual Amount Spent Per Person

2016...Y25,891

2017...Y35,137

2018...Y63,854

2020...Y36,472

2021...Y96,547

2022...Y71,343

 

As an online survey it is possible the results could be swayed by campaigns to raise a particular groups profile.  The largest group in spending has always been Popular Idols, a category that includes concert admissions. Three largest population groups in 2022 were anime, manga and digital games.  Vocaloid would include Karaoke.

 

It has been noted in the past that the model railroad market in Japan is shrinking.  That is probably why there have not been any major additions to the manufacturers list since the emergence of Tomytec circa 2005-2007.

Edited April 10, 2023 by bill937ca

[SwallowAngel]

Those spending numbers make me look like a whale...

But it is somewhat concerning to see the market population shrinking, even in Japan. Seems to be trend seen across the worldwide model train world. Especially the British seemed to be up in arms about the falling numbers.

I would be interested to see such a study conducted in continental europe. I´d imagine the numbers would be even grimmer, considering the prices for model trains here...

[inobu]

The virtual goods are replacing tangible goods and they are going back to a 2D world.

We modelers simulate to a 3D world.......Younger generation likes having the world in 2D

that way they can toss it at will......

 

Inobu

[Beaver]

Why the heck does the market population crash so suddenly from 2017 to 2018? What happened in that year to cause this change?

[bill937ca]

Maybe a lot of new trains to buy?  I was looking at the E233 suburban sets and the Tobu 50000 sets. They all appeared about 2010. Many were released by Kato but not right at the debut. I also think response is variable. The industry knows what the production is  and they have some idea of what the biggest consumers spend 

Edited April 10, 2023 by bill937ca

[kndy]

I think it's a very tough thing in Japan. You will have the diehard fans who can actually own railway models and build dioramas but it's quite a niche fandom.  There are far too many things that compete for one's spending dollars and it doesn't help much especially now with the poor Japanese economy (weak yen) and the rising costs of materials leading to rising prices. 

 

Yano Research has emphasized that the markets is expected to shrink, it's inevitable.

 

You can follow the niche otaku markets here:  https://www.yano.co.jp/press-release/show/press_id/3121

You can follow the otaku consumer survey  here: https://www.yano.co.jp/press-release/show/press_id/3100

 

We are seeing changes....

 

Similar to the United States, where there will be less demand for new cars and people wanting used trains.  The used railway model market for trains in Japan is quite large and there are more consignments.

 

Longtime HO trainmaker Katsumi was just bought by Surugaya, Takara Tomy has shifted with its plarail to more cost effective ES models at Y1300 a train but instead of special molding, just get a plastic block with stickers now being applied for windows.  The rising cost of materials will plague the industry and this effects Japan throughout the board.

 

For trains, we are going to see probably less of 3-4 train basic sets and big add ons to seeing it reversed with the basic sets now having more trains sold at a larger price point.

 

When I see train rankings, for Yodobashi train sales, the most popular trains being sold are TRANE - who specializes in die-cast metal n-scale versions of trains and Takara Tomy Shinkarion Z (transforming trains to robots) and Plarail.

 

Meanwhile, we are seeing mom and pop/generational train shops disappearing and temporary rental shops increasing.  Sales floors of mass retailers have now started to dedicate less to railroad models and boost its plastic models.

 

KATO has aimed for its target 6.2 billion yen but have yet to accomplish this.  As of fiscal year ending on May 2022,  Sekisui made 5.8 billion and in fiscal year ending in May 2021 is similar to the 2020 of 5.6 billion in sales.

 

With that being said, Yano Research October information shows that the stay-at-home during the COVID-19 pandemic did help in interest in railway models.  We'll have to wait a few months to see how 2022 has done as there it is expected to reach ¥12.2 billion yen with a 3.4% increase.

 

　FY2021 ¥11.8 billion yen

　FY2020 ¥11.5 billion yen

　FY2019 ¥10.5 billion

　FY2018 ¥11.0 billion

 

Inobu mentioned virtual goods.  There is truth to that.  When I covered the Tokyo Game Show, I have been doing it virtually via my Oculus Quest 2 and we are seeing the popularity grow for gaming simulators (which is another thing that competes with train collectors, the ever loving train DLC).

 

And of course, the aging society.  While this is going to be prevalent in Japan, I think it's also an indicator worldwide.  I am not sure if the younger generations will have the same passion for trains that we will have. 

 

Depending on the niche, we are seeing these pains.  Even on another site I belong to in regards to audio or videophiles, worried about the state of Blu-ray and 4K Ultra HD and their home theater equipment due to a generation finding digital streaming more to their liking.  And the same will happen with video games and video game consoles and physical releases.  Japan known to be the #2 in music sales and where people are more apt to purchasing the physical releases are now starting to shift digitally.  As a watch guy, it's weird people react "you are wearing a real watch, how come you don't go to an Apple watch".

 

In fact, as a person who enjoys traveling worldwide, I try to get my son to travel and his words are "why do that when I can do a lot of that online".   It's a bit weird, but I have been visiting various Japanese railroad stations through my Oculus Quest 2 via the Wander app.  Granted, it's not the same thing but for my son and his friends, they have their mindset, why spend all that money traveling to see something when you can see it online.

 

Ahh..our younger generation, where technology will lend to even more virtual and online services, digital products and ChatGPT will become the future for our younger generation.

 

 

[MeTheSwede]

On 4/10/2023 at 4:25 PM, Beaver said:

Why the heck does the market population crash so suddenly from 2017 to 2018? What happened in that year to cause this change?

 

As far as I can understand the press release, this "population crash" represents about 20 people less identifying as train otakus in 2018 than in 2017.

 

It's just random fluctuations of the figures due to the limitations of the methology of the study.

[Beaver]

If just 20 people can change the outcome of the study then that is not a terribly reliable study. Usual problem with these sort of surveys - no guarantee the randomly selected sample of a population participating in your study actually reflects the population as a whole.

[Wolf]

38 minutes ago, Beaver said:

If just 20 people can change the outcome of the study then that is not a terribly reliable study.

"We have asked 100 train otakus and ..."

:)

[cteno4]

I bit my lip earlier on this subject, but it’s bleeding too much now…

 

These kinds of surveys should never be called “studies” as that implies they do standard scientific testing with controls and such. Marketing surveys are the worst. I was involved with a lot of them when I worked for a publically traded educational software company and I hit the roof when I saw how they were being done, what we were being charged, and the multimillion decisions being based on totally wacky data (really should not have called it data as that give it some sense of authenticity and being useful and reliable). The consultants/marketing companies really just pandered to the marketing people in the company and made things look like they wanted to see it. I saw them twist numbers and data gathering procedures to completely manipulate the results. I had to laugh as they would always say their samplings were statistically accurate when they would do single small sampling that you could not do any statistics on to see if they were accurate samplings. When I would ask what statistics were used they would reply well look at the numbers 59% wanted xyz and I would rebut that was not a statistical analysis of their findings and they would say well you don’t understand this stuff! At that point I would lay into them with a minor in math and a PhD dissertation with a bunch of statistics in it! It was crazy. I’d ask  about controls and they would respond “we don’t control people!” and I could not help but to burst out laughing. It made me now completely ignore all these marketing surveys.

 

focus groups were even worse. It was nauseating to watch them and the “investigators” completely manipulate the group and at times get down right hostile to anyone with a thinking brain in the subject group that began to realize they were being manipulated. 
 

sorry after a few years of battling this I became super cynical on all this crap. I was glad to get out of it! Every time I fought a bad decision based on these surveys of focus groups they always ended up biting the company big time on the ass later. When we would just hire good professionals to make the decisions base more on their education and design experience and none of the marketing crap we always hit home runs.

 

jeff

[miyakoji]

On 4/10/2023 at 6:58 AM, bill937ca said:

Models of railroads with reduced scale of the real railroads and gauges (the inner width between the two rails).

What if I'm interested in railroads with the same scale and gauge as real railroads and gauges.  I guess you could call it 1:1 models.  Wait...

[Beaver]

This whole survey is based on a consumerist, profiteering definition of a hobby. No money to be made out of people who stand around on public land or station premises, photographing real trains using cameras they already owned, during the course of journeys that they were going on anyway. There are no products or services specifically for gricers that you can point to in a table of annual profit figures. No such thing as a camera specifically made for photographing trains, for example. Therefore not a hobby that can easily be included in this type of survey. If it's not a marketing opportunity, it's not on Yano's list............