JR Hokkaido closing railway lines in depopulated areas

[Densha]

After all the safety troubles of the last years, enormous deficits and declining ridership due to depopulation of rural Hokkaido in general, JR Hokkaido may need to close half of its railway lines.

 

Source: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/11/19/business/jr-hokkaido-says-cant-maintain-half-railways/?F#.WDHa1WpDSMq

[Densha]

I believe that closing railway lines over such distances will make travelling to already sparsely populated areas very difficult, which will again lead to even more depopulation and crowding of big cities. That's not really what Japan needs...

 

I guess this means that you should ride these Hokkaido lines as soon as possible while they still last.

Edited November 20, 2016 by Densha

[keiichi77]

This is terrible news, of all the rail lines in Japan the lines I want to travel the most are from JR Hokkaido. Unless I win the lottery soon I guess I will have to bike the effected lines at some point in the future. :(

[bill937ca]

Problem is that with depopulation trafffic density has fallen below the Japanese minimum standard for density of 4,000.   These lines have a density of 200-2000:

 

Sōya Main Line Nayoro - Wakkanai 183.2km 

Nemuro Main Line Kushiro-Nemuro 135.4km 

Nemuro Main Line Takigawa - Furano 54.6km 

Muroran Main Line Numanohata ~ Iwamizawa 67.0km 

Senmō Main Line Higashikushiro - Abashiri 166.2km 

Hidaka Main Line Tomakomai - Mukawa 30.5km 

Sekihoku Main Line new Asahikawa - Abashiri 234.0km 

Furano Line Furano - Asahikawa 54.8Km 

 

In the Japanese sense, density is a measure of how many passengers a line carries over each km of the line each (calendar) day of the year.

 

The Tokaido Shinkansen in 2008 carried 90 million passengers per km of route as noted by Leroy Demery.

 

Japan - Tokaido Shinkansen, 2008: 90 million pass-km per km of route.
Length: 515.4 km.
Passengers: 150.7 million.
Average Travel Distance: 308 km.

 

Japan - JR-East Shinkansen lines, 2007: 20 million pass-km per km of route.

Length: 980.0 km.
Passengers: 133.3 million.
Average Travel Distance: 150 km.

Note: Statistics include all passengers carried on the three shinkansen lines operated by JR-East: Tohoku, Joetsu and Hokuriku. 

[bill937ca]

Japanese minimum traffic density definition (scroll down to page 3, page 2 of the PDF).

 

"When the reform of Japanese National Railways was being discussed some 15 years ago, a government calculation showed that if the passenger traffic density (passenger-km / route-km) of a railway line does not exceed 4000 per day, motor transport could carry those passengers more efficiently from the viewpoint of the national economy" (No. 18, December 1998).

 

That's an average of 4,000 passengers traveling over every km of route per day. 

Edited November 21, 2016 by bill937ca

[bikkuri bahn]

if the passenger traffic density (passenger-km / route-km) of a railway line does not exceed 4000 per day, motor transport could carry those passengers more efficiently from the viewpoint of the national economy"

 

This.  Almost everybody drives in the countryside.  Who rides the trains? The elderly and high school students.  That's all (I should know- I used the Nemuro Line for two years to go to work sites)  JR Hokkaido is further burdened by the long winters, and the enormous costs incurred by heavy snowfall.  Perhaps the only option other than closing the lines, is to separate ownership of the track (and associated maintenance) from the operation of passenger services.  The government would take over (and fund) the former, and JR Hokkaido would operate the trains only.

[Densha]

I am now sort of starting to consider trying to go to Hokkaido this winter and ride as many trains using the Seishun 18 Kippu, but it's still very far away from away from Kansai. I'd really like to experience the atmosphere of these lines at least ones.

[katoftw]

 

I'm surprized about the line near Asahikawa and Furano considering these are in some of the biggest tourist locations of Hokkaido.

 

But understandable the section of Sassho Line that parallels the the Hokkaido Main Line north of Sapporo.

Edited November 21, 2016 by katoftw

[Densha]

Scrapping the Furano - Shintoku line is also rather unfortunate, because this will mean a lot more travel time between northern Hokkaido and the stations along the Nemuro Main Line.

 

I think we really will see the 'will scrap' lines scrapped in just a few years. The lines that they want to share costs with with the local government might be running a couple of years longer, but I think there's a big chance that these lines will also be scrapped eventually.

Edited November 21, 2016 by Densha

[Kiha66]

I've always wanted to ride the Yubari and Rumoi lines, I wonder if they'll last long enough for me to visit.  I found a JNR map from 1964, its amazing to see just how much trackage has been lost in fifty years on hokkaido alone.

 

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/60/JNR_SystemMap_19641001.png

[westfalen]

This is what happens when you privatise your rail network in bits and pieces like Japan did.  The profitable parts like JR East, JR Central and JR West with major population centres and the busiest Shinkansen lines in their territory laugh all the way to the bank but the poor cousins like Hokkaido, well....  You can't tell me no one at the privatisation of JNR couldn't see this coming.

 

I'm glad I rode all the lines that remained open in 2006, some of them are already gone.

Edited November 21, 2016 by westfalen

[kvp]

I think this was the intention during the privatisation, so the government won't be held accountable for closures and the process will be slow enough to go unnoticed. A similar strategy was the third sectorisation, to move the burden of losses to the local governments and later to allow the closure of the lines on a local, line by line level, so no central government decision is visible in the process. The same process is also used by the big three JR companies, so whenever a region gets shinkansen access, all the unprofitable local lines are shut down or made into 3rd sector companies, that in turn close after a few years, unless local residents are willing to support them. This process leaves only commuter networks with local supporting populations as all intercity and inter regio routes are blocked by network fragmentation and intercity traffic is taken over by shinkansen and airlines, while inter regio traffic is handled by state subsidised buses, that piggyback on the state funded national highway system. I think this outcome was actually planned during the privatisation as the main parts of the national highway system was just completed.

 

ps: It's just my assumption, but i think passenger rail traffic in Japan outside commuter lines could only remain where there are active freight routes, otherwise the track maintenance costs couldn't be financed in the long term. Of course, freight traffic will move to cheaper options in the long term, mainly coastal shipping as most remaining industry and all major cities are on the coast. This could mean islands of commuter passenger operations with continous tracks between cities only at locations where these cities form a continous area. For the highway system, most main routes could remain, but in the long term, the less traveled roads could end up the same way as less traveled railroad, mainly given to local governments or closed. This would leave large depopulated areas of Japan accessible only on water and air routes as these two are the most economical when there is no significant population in an area.

[Densha]

Just thought of something... all JR's now have a bunch of their own tourist-oriented trains, but JR Hokkaido has very few to none. JR Hokkaido has plenty of nature that could be marketed, and add some kitschy museum or whatever them come up with at the end of the line and the wealthy elderly keep coming!

 

That still doesn't take away that rural Hokkaido has very few people living there.

[Sacto1985]

I think the lines that go to Wakkanai and Nemuro and goes by Abashiri will remain open, mostly because JR Hokkaido will get into a cost-sharing agreement with the Hokkaido prefectural government. And watch for JR Hokkaido to seriously look at turning some trainsets into excursion trains to encourage more patronage on these lines.

[Densha]

It has become very likely that the 47.6 km long unelectrified Hokkaido-Iryodaigaku - Shin-Totsukawa section of the Sassho Line will be closed in 2019. Although mayors of towns along the line were first against closing the line, they now seem to have accepted closure.

 

The to be closed part of the Sassho Line only sees 6 trains per direction a day on the busiest section, although only 1 round trip makes it up to the terminus station of Shin-Totsukawa.

 

The electrified Soen - Hokkaido-Iryodaigaku section will keep on running with up to four trains per direction per hour during rush hours.

 

Source: http://tabiris.com/archives/sassyosen201805/

[katoftw]

I remember that line in closure conversation a while back. Low ridership and parralel running near a main line.

[kvp]

Afaik the original announcement aims at a 50% reduction in track length, so actually it seems most diesel lines.

[Densha]

I merged both threads on upcoming JR Hokkaido line closure.

[bikkuri bahn]

22 hours ago, kvp said:

Afaik the original announcement aims at a 50% reduction in track length, so actually it seems most diesel lines.

Yes, I reckon within the next ten to twenty years we will see just the electrified lines and the most vital non-electrified trunk lines remaining.  The demographics and travel habits of the populace predict it.  Basically the Sapporo urban network, Hakodate/Muroran/Chitose line, between Hakodate and Asahikawa, and the Sekisho/Nemuro Line as far as Kushiro, will remain (The Nemuro Main Line may have to be renamed as Nemuro will lose its rail access, I predict replacement with some nonsense monicker like "East Rainbow Line").   Everything else will be axed.  No more rail service north or west of Asahikawa, and Kitami and Abashiri will lose their rail access. 

Edited May 19, 2018 by bikkuri bahn

[bill937ca]

Privatization of public enterprises is a core tenet of neoliberalism, and probably the most representative domestic development in this regard was the privatization of Japanese National Railways (JNR) in 1987. The resulting rail companies, distinguished primarily by region, have demonstrated differing degrees of success. In some cases, especially for new shinkansen lines, they rely on input from the government, which assumed the JNR debt, but the inevitable rationalization that accompanies privatization has affected the domestic rail industry in startling ways, given how central rail culture is to Japanese life.

 

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/05/11/national/media-national/jr-hokkaido-confronts-harsh-realities-financing-rail-lines-depopulated-areas/#.XNcUP45Kjcc

[katoftw]

It is an interesting article.  Most of the detail is already well known to us, JP rail fans that have been following the situation in Hokkaido for some time.  The article just seems to pull info from various other written articles from over the years and combined them all into one.

 

Will be interesting to see if the Yubari example will help other make the switch.  A personal opinion is that the process of closing down lines should have started a long time ago.  Closing down one line every two years would have been easier to digest for the locals.  But attempt to close 33%-50% of rail line at once.  And you'll get a lot of push back all at once also.  Making the process for all involved much more difficult for both residents whom fell they are being ignored (as officials are dealing with multiple lines), and also those railway employees whom cannot support so many residents and city officials as they are dealing with half the country.

[Yavianice]

April 17th is the final operation day of the Sassho line between Shin-Totsukawa and Hokkaido-Iryodaigaku. It was originally decided to close in May, but the COVID-19 epidemic expedited its closure. Forum member @ayokoi made the video above.

 

I am afraid that JR Hokkaido will close A LOT of lines soon because of the upcoming economic crash, major unemployment, and tourists staying away.

Edited April 16, 2020 by Yavianice

[Welshbloke]

I wonder if this will trigger a growth in preserved railways in Japan? The mass closures of the 60s in the UK led to thousands of people across the country coming together to reopen their local line.

 

To this day however they are dealing with what can only be seen as a deliberate attempt to make it difficult or impossible to reconnect to the national network, by demolishing large structures, using cuttings as landfill sites, or selling important bits of land off piecemeal for redevelopment. Couldn't have volunteers disrupt the narrative that the railways were outdated and unprofitable by running a connecting service, could they...

[Socimi]

Interesting and nice article. 

 

Actually, JR Hokkaido (togheter with JR Shikoku and JR Freight) is still under government ownership via the Japan Railway Construction, Transport and Technology Agency, an "Independent Administrative Institution".

(the other JR group companies weren't also fully privatized until the 2000s: JR East was the first in 2002, followed by JR West in 2004, JR Central in 2008 and JR Kyushu in 2016).

A possible solution would be to hand over these lines to the Hokkaido prefectural government, forming some new third-sector railway, like JNR did back in the '80s:

 

In the "JNR reconstruction act" of 1980, article 8 was a list of "specified local lines" to be closed or handed over to the prefectural governments, effectively creating many of today's third-sector railways.

 

Some of these "specified lines" later became quite famous (such as the Sanriku, Ise, Matsuura and Aizu railways) and if not profitable, atleast they weren't a money-devouring-machine anymore, altough some others were eventually closed about 20-25 years later (such as the Miki Railway).

 

Yet, at this point, i wonder if the Hokkaido Shinkansen was really necessary...

 

[Nick_Burman]

14 hours ago, Socimi said:

(such as the Miki Railway)

 

The Miki Railway closed because the neighbouring Kobe Electric line was a much better proposition for local passengers.

 

Cheers Nicholas