Strong earthquake in Kyushu

[railsquid]

Yeah, but have you allowed for the catastrophic effects of a MAJOR eruption of Mount Aso?

 

My personal predictions:

- if there's a medium-to-heavy fall of fairy dust overnight, services could be up and running as soon as they can restock the catering trolleys with beer.

- if Godzilla rises from the sea and starts taking bites out of large sections of the line, service might not be restored until around St. Swithins Day 2043.

 

For the record, the Tohoku Shinkansen was fully reopened (albeit with speed restrictions) about 6 weeks after the 2011 earthquake (details, in Japanese).

[kvp]

 

Yeah, but have you allowed for the catastrophic effects of a MAJOR eruption of Mount Aso?

The shinkansen route seems to be at a safe (more than 30 km) distance from the mountain, if we take the 1980 St. Helens blast a reference point. Anything above that would be really catastrophic and wouldn't leave much area to be served by any kind of rail. Also don't forget that mount Aso has been mostly dormant for over 90 000 years, while before that it had large scale eruptions every 45-50 000 years, which formed the larger caldera area containing most of the agricultural lands around the mountain.

 

ps: Railsquid, i like your predictions as they seem to be rooted in solid research...  :)

[katoftw]

Hohi Line between Kumamoto and Higo-ozu is open.  Which is the electrified section of the line.

Edited April 18, 2016 by katoftw

[katoftw]

Airport reopening to day.  Trams operational today.  Highway buses between Hakata and Kumamoto will begin to operate sometime today.

[railsquid]

Some before-and-after pictures of Kumamoto Castle: http://www.huffingtonpost.jp/2016/04/18/kumamoto-castle_n_9717564.html

 

They reckon it will take about 10 years to restore.

[bill937ca]

Serious damage reported on the Shinkansen in Kyushu.

[railsquid]

Here's some pictures: http://mainichi.jp/graphs/20160419/hpj/00m/040/002000g/5

[katoftw]

What a mess.  They'll be working 24-7 trying to get the Shinkansen up and running asap.

[Sacto1985]

Those pictures is why I said it may late this fall before Kyushu Shinkansen resumes service at minimum, in my humble opinion. We don't know how much damage there is to those long tunnels south of Kurume Station all the way to Kagoshima-Chuo.

[railsquid]

Indeed we don't know, that's why no-one else except you is speculating at the moment. Or do you have some sources you'd like to share?

[kvp]

 

Some before-and-after pictures of Kumamoto Castle

Some of the buildings are held up by a few stones only. If they manage to reinforce at least those areas (preferably with steel concrete cradling equipment), then they could be saved. If the remaining corner columns collapse in another quake, then even the main building could collapse. Imho it could be restored to be more quake resistant with a concrete retaining wall behind the stonework. The earth based dampening under the buildings worked well, so imho that could be kept as is.

[railsquid]

Shinkansen update: to reopen from tomorrow between Shin-Minamata and Kagoshima-Chuo (NHK, Japanese).

[railsquid]

Meanwhile there have been two further significant earthquakes (5- and 5+) this evening in Kumamoto. I feel really sorry for everyone there, it must be really nerve-wracking.

[katoftw]

Interesting they have got the Shinkansen running up to Shin-Minamata.  You have to take the orange railway to Yatsushiro, but then what?  Buses I'd presume?

 

I'm surprised they haven't come from the north as far as Kurume also.  Although it isn't a huge time savings Hakata to Shin-Tosa/Kurume.

Edited April 19, 2016 by katoftw

[railsquid]

ca. 2 metre shift sideways near Kusatsu...
 

[bill937ca]

Map of the closed railway sections:

 

https://www.tetsudo.com/traffic/map/

[katoftw]

Kumamoto to Yatsushiro Kagoshima Mainline reopened at 1pm to day.

[railsquid]

Possibility of Shinkansen test runs between Hakata and Kumamoto on the 23rd (NHK, Japanese)

[ToniBabelony]

Just in the news a summary of earthquakes in Kyushu in the last week: around 770 quakes with a fee dozen medium to heavy ones. That's about 110 per day... Pretty crazy.

[bill937ca]

Kumamoto quake pattern 'unprecedented,’ say experts

 

It is unprecedented for two earthquakes with a maximum intensity of 7 on the Japanese scale to hit the same municipality in quick succession, but that is precisely what occurred in Kyushu in recent days.

 

http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201604210042.html

 

Quake-wrecked Asojinja shrine starts on long road to recovery

 

http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201604210033.html

[railsquid]

Possibility of Shinkansen test runs between Hakata and Kumamoto on the 23rd (NHK, Japanese)

 

Confirmed, with the possibility of passenger services being restored - meanwhile work on rerailing the derailed unit has commenced, which according to the linked article is the main barrier to resuming services between Kumamoto and Shin-Minamata.

Edited April 22, 2016 by railsquid

[katoftw]

I thought the stations, especially Shin-Yatsushiro would have been the hold up.  The concrete on the underneath of the platforms didn't look good.  But then they might have been built with the ability to reconstruct quickly.

 

Just realized were that Shinkansen is stuck.  The rail yards south of Kumamoto station.

[railsquid]

And partially on a bridge over a river, which looks like it's complicating the crane-based recovery work.

[katoftw]

That canal is feed from the moat of the castle.  There is access from both side of the canal.  And also access from the yard side of the viaduct.  But yeah it just be easier with a canal right in the middle.

 

I see the fall colours starting to appear.  Lucky they are nearly done with the recovery process. haha

[bill937ca]

The quake-derailed Shinkansen has finally been moved on.