Trains vs Planes in Japan.

[Sascha]

Seeing the disaster that looms over JR Hokkaido with an estimated loss of 17.5 Billion yen next year, and the not so successful Hokkaido Shinkansen start, I am left wondering on how much the Airlines play a part in all this? How much of a competition are they to the train company's?

[railsquid]

I don't have any figures, but "quite a lot" I guess - especially the with the newer budget airlines.Cut-price long-distance coaches are also doing their part.

[Suica]

Honestly, if you're not a rail fan or don't have something like the Japan Rail Pass, why would you go by train?

 

Here's a little comparison:

That one way trip on the Shinkansen from Tokyo to Hakodate will cost you ¥23k.

For the same price you can get a return trip with ANA.

 

It doesn't look much different with other faraway cities either.

 

 

 

[kvp]

Train travel has to be either cheaper or faster to compete with airlines and buses. The old cape gauge network could provide cheaper than airline but faster than bus service, but those trains are mostly gone where there is a shinkansen alternative. The buses will be cheaper as long as they could use the tax funded highways for free or at least less than their maintenance fee. Also air travel became cheaper for longer distances thanks to not needing any tracks or roads, so fuel costs matter more than maintenance costs and oil based fuel is cheap right now, while electricity has become as expensive as diesel because of the stopped nuclear reactors.

 

In the early JNR days air travel was expensive and not much faster than the fastest trains and had little capacity for mass transit. This is why the first shinkansen route was a huge success. Later routes were not so successful and the construction costs managed to take the JNR down. At the same time, the national highway system was built out in Japan, providing a nearly free route for highway buses between the same high density destinations the shinkansen network serve, except the buses could also stop at smaller towns, effectively replacing the old long distance trains.

 

I expect the new shinkansen route to have less passengers than the old trains it replaced with the rest of the travellers choosing either air travel or buses. If you are a tourist, it's great. For railfans, it's a matter of taste, while for the average local resident, shinkansen is something that is not for daily use. The only exceptions from these rules were the high capacity commuter shinkansens, that are being scaled back right now. Of course shinkansen technology remains great for routes where commuters and tourists could support it. For the rest of the network, imho it's a race for political ambitions and government fund sources, while at the same time the construction mostly removes the fast cape gauge interurban routes that would actually be needed.

 

Maglev technology could change this for the busiest routes as it's fast enough to compete with air travel if the construction costs could be held low. For the existing shinkansen routes the only way to compete with air travel would be to go below them, but that would make most services unprofitable. Also, piggybacking the passenger trains onto the costs of the freight network would only be possible with cape gauge express trains.

[nartak]

In Japan, there is a kind of proven rule of "4 hours travel time"
If the train travel time finish under 4 hours, then train is dominant over airplane.
If the travel time exceeds 4 hours, then airplane is dominant.

For Hokkaido Shinkansen, travel time is exceeding 4hours from Tokyo to Hakodate, so people might take airplane especially they are very flexible to set discount tickets.

[kvp]

There is a chart about travel times on wikipedia:

The 4 hour goal seems reachable, but 360 km/h is well above the current average speed and 2030 is 14 years away. 5 hours between Tokyo and Sapporo seems closer with current speeds and technology and the whole Hokkaido line completed.

[ToniBabelony]

The thing as always with airplanes that people tend to miss are check-in times, travel to and from the airport and waiting for your luggage. It can be smooth, but still takes up an hour or so, plus the hassle and so on. Depending on your type of travel and purpose, this can be an issue (or not).

[JR 500系]

In Japan, there is a kind of proven rule of "4 hours travel time"

If the train travel time finish under 4 hours, then train is dominant over airplane.

If the travel time exceeds 4 hours, then airplane is dominant.

 

For Hokkaido Shinkansen, travel time is exceeding 4hours from Tokyo to Hakodate, so people might take airplane especially they are very flexible to set discount tickets.

 

Interesting,, thanks for sharing!  But it's just Slightly over 4 hours, 4 hours 2 minutes to be exact... surely 2 mins can be overlooked as over 4 hours?  :P

 

I think the cost comes in as a more major issue, as Suica san has mentioned. But for Rail Pass users like us of course that would be greatly minimised ~

 

 

The thing as always with airplanes that people tend to miss are check-in times, travel to and from the airport and waiting for your luggage. It can be smooth, but still takes up an hour or so, plus the hassle and so on. Depending on your type of travel and purpose, this can be an issue (or not).

 

Agreed. That's also the phobia of flying for some. But then again, going to the airport always feels like going on a holiday as compared to going to a train station which one in Japan might do almost everyday, so perhaps that's why planes have a little edge over the trains...

[Ochanomizu]

Hello,

 

The 4 hour rule that Mr Nartak refers to is well proven in Japan.  But while a flight from Tokyo to Sapporo might, at first seem cheap and quick, you must also factor in the transfers at either end; both the time and the cost, and also the weather.  You must also consider what you plan to do after the journey.  For example,  If I lived in Sapporo but was going to make a trip to the USA, I might avoid the train and fly CTS-NRT-LAX.  But if I was planning to spend a couple of nights at Tokyo Marunouchi Hotel and dine at La Rochelle, then I think a shinkansen trip by day would be most enjoyable.

[bikkuri bahn]

Good points Mr. Ochanomizu.  Though with the expansion of Haneda AP international flights the requirement of using Narita becomes less of an issue for those of us in northern Japan.  I think the market is more for the intermediate point customers for this line.  Say Sendai to Hakodate, or even Omiya to Hakodate.  Few if any people (other than railfans) took the Zairaisen+shikansen route all the way from Sapporo to Tokyo, and I think still most people will fly, especially given the proliferation of LCC flights.  Winter travel by shinkansen is a plus though.

[katoftw]

My ears hate pressures/planes.  On decent, you might as well be chopping my leg off with a rusty chainsaw.  The pain will be the same.  Choo choo over planes any day.

Edited April 1, 2016 by katoftw

[JR 500系]

My ears hate pressures/planes.  On decent, you might as well be chopping my leg off with a rusty chainsaw.  The pain will be the same.  Choo choo over planes any day.

 

Me too ~ But surely not choo-choo, but ssswwwaaassshhhh.....  Taking a steam train from Sapporo to Tokyo I will have to pass, but a shinkansen SURE why not! :P

 

Also, the toilets on the trains are definitely much larger than that of the plane.... Along with the scary vacuum noise of the plane toilet when you flush...

 

And the larger seats of the train too ~ A much better rest than that of the plane surely...   :)

Edited April 1, 2016 by JR 500系

[Suica]

And the larger seats of the train too ~ A much better rest than that of the plane surely...   :)

 

But not these 2+3 and 3+3 seats. If you take an unreserved seat, okay, that's your own fault. But The 700 series standard class reserved seats were pretty bad... (Those JR Kyushu N700 reserved seats were an absolute BLESSING)

[katoftw]

Agreed.  The seating west of Shin-Osaka is much better than the east of Shin-Osaka.

[westfalen]

Good points Mr. Ochanomizu.  Though with the expansion of Haneda AP international flights the requirement of using Narita becomes less of an issue for those of us in northern Japan.  I think the market is more for the intermediate point customers for this line.  Say Sendai to Hakodate, or even Omiya to Hakodate.  Few if any people (other than railfans) took the Zairaisen+shikansen route all the way from Sapporo to Tokyo, and I think still most people will fly, especially given the proliferation of LCC flights.  Winter travel by shinkansen is a plus though.

I am planning to do either Tokyo to Tomakomai or vice versa in September in green car seats, it will be interesting to see how many locals who started the journey are left when I arrive at my destination.  The initial novelty should have worn off by then leaving mostly regular travellers as opposed to railfans.

[Ochanomizu]

Hello Mr Westfalen,

 

I always travel Green Car.  It is usually quite empty, except for Tokaido shinkansen, which can be quite full.  Often, north of Sendai or west of Hiroshima I am only customer in the Green Car.  Another exception is special events and public holidays, of course.

 

I will be interested to hear how your trip goes.

[JR 500系]

Hello Mr Westfalen,

 

I always travel Green Car.  It is usually quite empty, except for Tokaido shinkansen, which can be quite full.  Often, north of Sendai or west of Hiroshima I am only customer in the Green Car.  Another exception is special events and public holidays, of course.

 

I will be interested to hear how your trip goes.

 

Indeed Ochanomizu san ~

 

Except also for Kyushu Shinkansen Sakura's Green Seats. Often, it is so packed out we couldn't book any seats, from Hakata to Shin-Osaka or vice versa. Hakata onwards will be quite empty. Also because there were FAR lesser Green seats than Tokaido Shinkansen trains... (only half of car number 6)...