Most likely to be superseded?

[Guest keio6000]

After I bought a Seibu NRA from 500-san (on its way soon), I happened upon a GM 30000 "smile train" dirt cheap ("used but barely out of the box") and went for it.

 

Still, the thought occurred to me that this train probably ranks up there in the "most likely to be superseded" category in that surely one of the big three - if only MA at some outrageous price, probably has this important Seibu train lined up in their future.  And then, will we find my already cheap GM set confined to unwantedness like, say, the GM Tokyo Metro 16000 sets that are now far less popular than the very good Kato ones (not that GM pre-built doesnt have some advantages of course, but I think overall most would take a kato any day).

 

Got me wondering as to what other trains you think are likely to be superseded soon.   One recent one that was was the MA Keikyu 2100 - the release of Kato's very good model have made prices for the MA ones drop considerably.  Ditto OER 3100s, of course.

 

A couple of obvious ones are the various Eidan/Tokyo Metro 6000/7000/8000 derivatives if Kato makes those as they have so far done one Chiyoda 6000.  Another is a Tokyu 5050 which is almost certainly coming from Kato.

 

Would love to see a JR 701 series - and I suspect Tomix might make one at one point - kind of fits their niches and the MA ones go for pretty silly money.

 

Just to be clear, by "supersede" i mean not just "released the same model", but "released the same model in some combination of cheaper and better that really makes the first release lose much of its appeal.  for example, the Kato E3-1000s did not really supercede the Tomix set since there are certainly good arguments to be made that the Tomix set is better or at the very very least it holds its own and the price difference isn't much.

Edited February 10, 2016 by keio6000

[kvp]

My bet: old spring worm drive Tomix ED75-s

[1954G]

The Tomix 700系 3000 shinkansen( http://www.tomytec.co.jp/tomix/products/n/92264-7.htm ) is still worth around 30k JPY for a full set.  Once Tomix releases a version with power couplers, prices will drop, as usual.

 

The impending release of the power coupler-equipped 200系 2000 has already decreased the value of the previous release.  We will not see auctions like this one anymore:  http://page14.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/s478653501  

[Robert46]

Yeah the power coupler sets always looks more promising for its unfair advantage and suddenly price of older models without power coupler dropped.. Interesting to know Tomix 700系 3000 using diaphragm coupler unlike most of their shinkansens..

 

The auction sellers always tried to gain more profit from this phenomena.. LoL

[JR 500系]

The Tomix 700系 3000 shinkansen( http://www.tomytec.co.jp/tomix/products/n/92264-7.htm ) is still worth around 30k JPY for a full set.  Once Tomix releases a version with power couplers, prices will drop, as usual.

 

The impending release of the power coupler-equipped 200系 2000 has already decreased the value of the previous release.  We will not see auctions like this one anymore:  http://page14.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/s478653501

 

This is really strange. Just a day after your post:

 

http://www.1999.co.jp/eng/10047551

http://www.1999.co.jp/eng/10047552

http://www.1999.co.jp/eng/10047553

http://www.1999.co.jp/eng/10047554

 

 

Wow... I wonder what those guys who bought off the older 200系 2000 series would do or feel after seeing the release of the newer Tomix ones...

Edited February 10, 2016 by JR 500系

[Guest keio6000]

These are all really good suggestions, but I'm not sure they're exactly in the spirit of what I had in mind in that the best we came up with (and it's not a bad suggestion) is one Tomix shinkansen replacing another.  I more meant what existing model by one manufacturer is likely to be replaced with a better and competitively priced one by another.

 

One idea I had was the Keisei 3700.  This is a train released by GM as a completed kit but not by MA.  However, if MA makes a set I don't think it will actually supercede it because the MA is likely to be multiples more expensive.