Selling Shinkansen globally

[velotrain]

https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/finding-the-silver-bullet-for-japans-train-dilemma/

 

 

 

"Texas Central estimates the (Houston - Dallas) line will cost US$10 billion and will be privately funded, without public subsidies. Assuming it manages to fund the project, Texas Central said it hopes to begin operations by 2021."

 

I think it's safe to say they're not going to find the funding.  I'm guessing something like the entire state of Texas would need to ride the train 10 times a year to pay back the $10 billion, not to mention the operating costs over that period.  Actually - even if it was somehow built for free, I'm not sure that they could cover the operating costs on an ongoing basis.  They have to be expecting way too many people to abandon airplanes and their cars.  Who's going to provide the connecting services from their stations?

[bikkuri bahn]

Who's going to provide the connecting services from their stations?

The same services that get airline customers from the airport to wherever their final destination is.

 

A shinkansen style service is so different from stone age Amtrak and far superior and stressfree compared to TSA mandated American commercial flights that I think it has a fighting chance.

Edited August 11, 2015 by bikkuri bahn

[velotrain]

The same services that get airline customers from the airport to wherever their final destination is.

 

A shinkansen style service is so different from stone age Amtrak and far superior and stressfree compared to TSA mandated American commercial flights that I think it has a fighting chance.

 

1.  However, the airports have been there for decades, and municipal transportation agencies have created bus and rapid transit routes to serve the airports.  Since Texas Central will be a private company, the cities may not be that fast to provide connecting services.  They may wait and see what the actual demand is, and potential train passengers might wait until there are established connections.

 

Another question is whether it really makes sense for someone who perhaps lives 20 miles outside their starting city and needs a car in their destination city.  I'm guessing that Texas cities are much more spread out than the far older eastern cities, and there isn't the same public transportation infrastructure in place.  After all, Texas is a big oil state, and I suspect there's a certain expectation that people drive to where they need to go.

 

 

2.  I'm not questioning that it is a more pleasant trip.  However, the numbers just don't make sense.  I don't know what projections Texas Central is showing to potential investors, but if the cost is $10 billion, there's just no way it will ever work.  The Northeast Corridor does make some money - the actual amount depends on just how you look at it, although Acela subsidizes the other trains.  However, since Texas Central will be a closed system, let's look at Acela by itself.  Discounting capitol expenses - which a private company can't do, the linked article indicates Acela makes somewhere around $300 million a year (allowing for adjustments through 2015).  If the busiest passenger rail service in the country - connecting multiple, major, east coast cities - only makes that much, how many decades will it take for a Texas railway line to earn back it's initial $10 billion capital outlay?  That is, if it can find lots of investors willing to wait 30 years - forever to get any earnings back on their investment.  It's so outrageous that I'm almost convinced it's a scam of some sort.  It would be very difficult to pull off even if the cost was $1 billion.

 

 

http://cs.trains.com/trn/b/fred-frailey/archive/2011/05/13/is-the-northeast-corridor-really-profitable.aspx

 

 

Somewhat related to this, "All Aboard Florida forecasts ridership of 5.3 million and farebox revenues of $294 million by 2020."  That's revenue, not profits.  I wonder what annual revenue Texas Central is projecting?  AAF just received permission to issue $1.75 billion in tax-exempt bonds, and hope to have the first segment open in two years.

[toc36]

I'm weighing in ..............

 

Let me start by saying that I love trains. I wouldn't be on this forum if I didn't. Even though my responses to passenger rail in the US are negative, it is based on fact and reality.

 

1. Read up on "Kelo vs. the City of New London". Extremely important case on private ownership and government condemnation of property. Even though the Supreme Court ruled in favor of political eminent domain (New London), individual states subsequently passed legislation that eviscerated that law at the state level in order to protect the rights of individual citizens. I'm thinking that Texas Central will have to pay a pretty penny for land rights.

 

2. All the liberal environmental NGOs will work hard to strangle any large construction projects in Texas. I doubt that the EPA will be of any assistance due to their political leanings. It amazes me that these organization protest and file suit against mining and extraction in the US, but have remained quiet on the Nicaragua Canal. Even with a favorable political environment, California is still years away from completing any of the required environment impact studies.

 

3. The middle class is tired of paying taxes so rich guys can get richer. I seriously doubt that Texans will be willing to subsidize this project. You can always hear the people willing to spend someone else money. I think that the only NFL team that is a positive financial value to its municipality is the Green Bay Packers.

 

A few links to rail in Arizona and New Mexico:

 

http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2015/08/phoenix-light-rail-we-spent-1-4-billion-and-growing-to-subsidize-asu-students.html[/url]

 

http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2015/08/why-valley-metro-phoenix-light-rail-cant-be-trusted-and-shouldnt-be-given-more-tax-money-to-play-with.html[/url]

 

http://www.abqjournal.com/447984/north/rail-runner-damage-settlements-reach-nearly-8m.html[/url]

 

Again, make US passenger rail effective, and I will ride it.

 

Mark

Edited August 11, 2015 by toc36

[velotrain]

3. The middle class is tired of paying taxes so rich guys can get richer. I seriously doubt that Texans will be willing to subsidize this project. You can always hear the people willing to spend someone else money.

 

You need to check the details.

[toc36]

Came across this article about a Florida high speed rail project.  Key issue, the company owns the land.

 

http://economics21.org/commentary/private-profitable-high-speed-rail-coming-florida

 

Mark

[Robert46]

I also wanted to know the progress of JC HSRC project.. are they still progressing or already shut down?

 

http://www.jchighspeedrail.com/

 

Seeing their website only provided news until 2013...

[toc36]

R46,

 

Interesting site.

 

Here are a couple of links to recent articles:

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/japanese-leader-abe-rails-for-high-speed-trains-in-u-s-1430081956

 

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/04/25/business/japanese-consortium-to-propose-kawasaki-heavy-bullet-trains-for-high-speed-line-in-california/#.VcvLLflVhBd

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/21/us-california-rail-china-idUSKBN0O60FT20150521

 

Here's a link to a pretty interesting blog:

 

http://www.cahsrblog.com/

[Mudkip Orange]

We have like five threads on this already but I'm happy to provide some remedial bullet points for velotrain and toc36.

 

(1) Texas law gives private railroad companies the power of eminent domain, as it has for 150 years. There was a brief attempt by a couple rural legislators to try to define this to exclude HSR but that failed.

 

(2) DFW and Bush Intercontinental are 20-25 miles from their respective cities. Additionally, Houston's office sprawl tends toward the north and west sides of the city, where the HSR will run. A system with two stops - Downtown Dallas and Houston @ Loop 610 - will be closer to 80% of white collar employment than the airport.

 

(3) Land between Houston and Dallas is flat and undeveloped. No viaducts or earthquake-zone tunneling here. Rails can blast across the landscape. Where roads intersect, a standard TxDOT-spec overpass can be had for the price of a small tract home.

 

(4) JR Tokai and the Japanese manufacturers want a beachhead to compete with Siemens for the US market. To do that they need a system that will not use FRA-spec vehicles. This excludes the NEC, FEC, most of the Midwest, and possibly CA depending on what happens with the "blended" Caltrain design. Texas offers their best hope of influencing stateside HSR development in a direction conducive to Japanese industrial involvement.

 

(5) Texas has very little NIMBY environmentalism. East and West Coast cities have attractive, walkable cores, which engender an anti-development mindset among certain upper-middle class folk. Texas, by contrast, is almost entirely postwar sprawl. The trains are welcomed by the left as a civilizing influence, a means to nudge TX towards the "right" kind of development (e.g. mixed-use, walkable, etc). There are local examples (One has led a protest against rail through Houston's First Ward), but they aren't well connected to the establishment.

 

I expect this to be built and I expect most of the money to come from Japan. They'll keep fighting... and they'll win!

[kvp]

While the texas case is perfect for the shinkansen, the general US market would be better for more siemens sprinters. They are great universal locomotives that can be used for low and high speed passenger and freight and are already fra compilant. Add one to both ends of a set and you have acela capabilities with normal cars and locomotives that can be recombined on the fly. Add control cars and you have cheap high speed rail on conventional tracks with one new locomotive per train. Not to mention the sprinters have diesel and overhead/diesel variants for partially electrified routes.

 

Shinkansens are only viable on completly new, grade separated tracks where there is cheap land for it.

[toc36]

A little bit about myself.  I love trains.  I grew up next to the "EL" tracks in the city that is the "Player with Railroads and the Nation's Freight Handler."  I currently live just outside of the DC beltway.  If I could commute to work cheaper and faster by Metro, I would.  If I could travel between DC and Chicago  faster by AMTRAK, I would.  I realize that there is a necessary critical mass of transportation infrastructure that needs to exist or be built for this to happen.  I don't see it happening in my lifetime.

 

Mudkip bring up a lot of good points.  Let me start by saying that I am smiling and I wish we were talking about this with a beer in hand at a "breastaurant".

 

"(1) Texas law gives private railroad companies the power of eminent domain..."

Absolutely true.  However, there is still an appraisal process and a condemnation process that is presented to the state court.  This is a long, arduous, and expensive procedure.  As a private landowner,  I still have the right to appeal the decision of the court.  Pipeline is considered transportation and falls under this category.  There are still over 100 Keystone related eminent domain court cases awaiting decision.

 

"(2) DFW and Bush Intercontinental are 20-25 miles from their respective cities..."

I whole heartedly agree with this point.  I think with services like Uber, Texas commuter rail between certain hubs a very viable option.  I think that the triangle including Dallas/Ft. Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio would be interesting.

 

"(3) Land between Houston and Dallas is flat and undeveloped..."

If you could you would, but since you can't you didn't.  This is not an issue that was just discovered.  Is this a self created problem to fund a project that no one really needs?  The price of fuel is dropping.  I would be interested in gaining insight from the liberal/tech/Austin/UT might approach this issue.

 

"(4) JR Tokai and the Japanese manufacturers want a beachhead to compete with Siemens for the US market..."

Japan is lobbying hard for this in-road.  But I think that GE and its ties to the current administration will make it difficult for the Japanese to penetrate the US market.

 

"(5) Texas has very little NIMBY environmentalism..." 

100% agreement here.  But, if I my property is impacted, I would fight to gain the maximum value if I am forced to sell or alter my property.

 

Again, I would like to see another public/private BENEFICIAL rail system.  Doesn't necessarily mean profitable.

 

OBTW, I'm on my my 4th glass of wine.........................

Edited August 28, 2015 by toc36

[railsquid]

I wish we were talking about this with a beer in hand at a "breastaurant".

Hooters?

[toc36]

Any of these 7!!!!

 

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Media/Slideshow/2014/02/13/7-Brazen-Breastaurants-US-2014

[velotrain]

(3) Land between Houston and Dallas is flat and undeveloped. No viaducts or earthquake-zone tunneling here. Rails can blast across the landscape. Where roads intersect, a standard TxDOT-spec overpass can be had for the price of a small tract home.

 

 

If everything you write is true, just why is it going to cost 10 billion?

 

I still say it won't get built, and if it does it will never be profitable.

[miyakoji]

"EL" tracks in the city that is the "Player with Railroads and the Nation's Freight Handler."

 

I assume you really do mean EL and not L, unless the wine was interfering :).  I've never heard it's "the player with railroads and the nation's freight handler," where does this come from?

[kvp]

http://www.poetryfoundation.org/poetrymagazine/poem/2043

and yes, it's just 'L'.

 

If everything you write is true, just why is it going to cost 10 billion?

 

Good high speed tracks cost around the same for a mile as airport runways, but you need more of them. Also you have to buy trains too.

 

But here is a great idea: If access by public transportation is a problem on both end points, then why don't they take the cars too. Something like the channel tunnel shuttle link, only longer. They could even add a mixed system with normal seating sections at the ends, like on ferry ships, so it would be possible to buy passenger tickets only, go to the bar or restaurant in the front sections or stay in your own car while riding at 300 km/h or more. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurotunnel_Shuttle

[miyakoji]

The L is in Chicago, the EL is in Philadelphia

[toc36]

Miyakoji san,

 

"EL" is short for elevated.  "L" vs "EL".  When I was a kid, it was the "EL".  Now the Chicago Tribune declares that it is the "L".  I guess they can't spell two letter words.  Also, I drink "pop", not "soda".  

http://popvssoda.com/

 

"the player with railroads and the nation's freight handler,"  This comes from a famous poem by Carl Sandburg about Chicago.

http://www.poemhunter.com/poem/chicago/

 

Mark

[miyakoji]

kvp, Mark,

 

Sorry, misunderstanding on my part.  I thought you were referring to the Market Frankford Line, and I didn't look at kvp's link.

[cteno4]

Oh groan, the short minded texting mentality has taken over the tribune, it's the EL!!! Sad when words no longer matter to a paper.

 

Jeff

[velotrain]

But here is a great idea: If access by public transportation is a problem on both end points, then why don't they take the cars too. Something like the channel tunnel shuttle link, only longer. They could even add a mixed system with normal seating sections at the ends, like on ferry ships, so it would be possible to buy passenger tickets only, go to the bar or restaurant in the front sections or stay in your own car while riding at 300 km/h or more. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurotunnel_Shuttle

 

But how much time would that add to the journey - at both ends?  I don't know about the chunnel service, but you need to have your car there 90 minutes (minimum) before departure for the Amtrak auto train, which covers a distance of 900 miles vs. 250 for Dallas - Houston.  It would likely be faster and cheaper for some / many people just to drive themselves - depending on actual starting and destination locations.

[kvp]

It's a shuttle every hour, so works like a ferry. Show up, get a ticket at the gate and drive onto the train. Multiple stops would require multiple enty and exit doors (and queues) for each destination, just like on a ferry. Recently i got off from an euronight direct coach at wien meidling (with a 25 minute delay on a 14 hour 3 train route) and bought a railjet ticket while the train was pulling into the station. I just had to run to the platform. Trains work on a show up and board immediately rule. Some operators even allow buying tickets on board from the conductor.